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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I am moving to questions. The lead questioners today will be Deputy John Paul Phelan and Deputy Pearse Doherty with 20 minutes each. Other questioners will have eight minutes after that. I will set the scene. Mr. McWilliams, you mentioned the housing price bubble in your opening address this morning. Given that you were warning for such an extensive period of time, was there any point...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: You mentioned in your book The Pope's Children that a property crash was on the way. You based this on the Minsky Kindleberger credit cycle analysis. Can you please outline to the Committee what that theory means? Can you also inform the inquiry if any person in authority contacted you in regard to the concerns you were raising at that time?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: That leads me to my last question. I ask Mr. McWilliams to be as succinct as possible in all his responses as we have another witness attending later. He referred to that big moment and the big intervention that is required-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: To come back to the Minsky moment, Mr. McWilliams spoke about how the big intervention might manifest itself. In the Irish situation, it was in the form of the banking guarantee. Did the design and implementation of the guarantee have any relationship to Ireland's entering a bailout programme two years and two months later?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: The diary that you are working-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: The Deputy is asking you about a sequence of meetings you had with Brian Lenihan. We can fill in the historical parts ourselves.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I need to move to the substantive part of this engagement, please.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I am looking forward to the coffee break later this morning but we need to deal with the issue.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Please conclude.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I want to round off this session by asking a simple question. I hope Mr. McWilliams gives me a short answer and then I shall call Deputy Higgins. At the time of the guarantee, and in Mr. McWilliams's engagements with Mr. Lenihan during that period, was it his view that the banks were in need of liquidity or were they insolvent?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Can Mr. McWilliams answer my question?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Is it Mr. McWilliam's view? Mr. McWilliams wrote extensively about this matter at the time.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: In 2008, Mr. McWilliams, in his book Follow the Money, wrote the following: The question for the state is whether we are looking at a situation of illiquidity or insolvency. Pessimists say the banks are insolvent; optimists argue they are simply liquid. If it is insolvency, which is unlikely, then there are the normal longer-term measures to deal with bad debts. In September 2008, in an...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I thank Mr. McWilliams and call Deputy Joe Higgins.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: As we have three minutes left, we need to move into the 21st century.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: The Deputy has one minute left.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I call on Senator MacSharry.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: That is a matter for the committee to decide. Senator, that is a leading question.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: If Mr. McWilliams will permit me for a moment, I will ask the-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (26 Feb 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: The Senator's option still is wrong. I ask him to reframe his question and not to use a leading question.

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