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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Can I clarify one matter that Professor Ahearne dealt with in regard to Deputy Murphy. It comes back to that article on 14 September 2008 which I think was in the Sunday Independent. Professor Ahearne said:The rumour mill concerning the health of Irish banks kicked into overdrive last week. Frankly, I find some of the more alarmist statements unhelpful. Still, banks must take their share...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: How would Professor Ahearne view the reliability of the information that was published?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: That is just speculation on Professor Ahearne's behalf. That is not based on hard evidence that he had before him.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Let me expand on that with Professor Ahearne, in that the mortgage products that were there at the time, as he indicated to Deputy McGrath, were very much for the home purchaser, but those products were also available for investors, particularly in the buy-to-let sector. Earlier in his testimony, Professor Ahearne discussed how the traditional model of valuing residential property was...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Perhaps I will give the lecture to Professor Ahearne. I am simply saying that if somebody buys a house over a 20 or 30-year schedule, he or she will pay interest and capital during that period and pare down the debt. One could value a house in terms of affordability, at three times the income of the purchaser and his or her partner. Another way to value it is to consider...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Was that picked up at the time? Professor Ahearne spoke of writing about rent ratios and other matters in October 2005, but was the picture I gave picked up at the time?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Was that because the equity in the property was accumulating so rapidly that one could turn it around in 12 months without having let it and still make a profit?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: On that analysis, the equity increase on a compound basis was greater, in some cases, than rental income on a property.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: in that regard, was that the optimum period for an intervention to have been made by the State or the regulator?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Would it have been possible to have made a successful intervention after 2004?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: In regard to Senator Barrett's earlier comments on the period during which Professor Ahearne was working for the late Brian Lenihan, were you compensated for your role during that period?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Please allow Professor Ahearne time to respond.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Deputy Higgins has a minute and a half remaining, so I suggest he move towards asking his final questions.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: We will wrap up soon. I invite Deputy Eoghan Murphy, followed by Senator Marc MacSharry.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I want to wrap up a couple of matters. I return to a earlier question by Senator Michael D'Arcy. Did the way the guarantee was designed have any relationship with Ireland being required to enter a bailout programme two years and two months later?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I was asking about the way the guarantee was designed.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I am asking if there is a relationship between the design of the guarantee and our ultimate entry into the bailout programme.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: The other matter I want to deal with goes back to an article Professor Ahearne wrote in 2008 and I believe it was written for the Sunday Independent. He posed the question of how much of what ails the Irish property market we can blame on the US sub-prime meltdown and the resulting international credit crunch. He answered it by stating that it was probably a lot less than some people would...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: If international factors were not at play and given the behavioural aspects in Ireland, in terms of weighing up the situation with regard to international and domestic factors, in Professor Ahearne's judgment where does it fall at either side with regard to the behavioural aspects of it? Was it a domestically manufactured crisis or was it an internationally manufactured crisis?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (4 Mar 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: In terms of weighing them, was it a ratio of 40:50 or 50:50?

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