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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: The ESRI has done studies based on the EU imposing 10% and 25%.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: That is published, is it?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: On page four of the opening statement, I could not fully understand the statement, “While inflation has been slowing down ... permanent changes to the tax and welfare system have resulted in small average income losses...” I get that, although it is described as insignificant, basically, at 0.3% of disposable income , but I could not really get the phrase “compared to...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: It is adjusted for inflation.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: They have not been keeping pace with wage growth or with inflation.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: They are fairly identical then.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: Social welfare lags.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: We talk about growth and real wages. Is this gross wages net of inflation or take-home wages net of inflation? Let us say the wage growth was 10% in a year and inflation was 5% or 4%, so the net is 6%. Does the ESRI take the 10% net of income tax?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: The wage growth is taken net of income tax.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: But it is not net of income tax. If there is wage growth of 10%, real net wage growth might only be 6%.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: Gross wages are the ESRI's measure.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: I often think that is a bit misleading because net wages are what counts.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: Unless the tax rate changes then-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: I have two snappy questions in the last minute. Does the ESRI do long-term forecasts of, for example, five, ten or 20 years?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: Economic.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: How long is the farthest forecast?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: This is my last question. Are we putting away enough in the different rainy-day funds that we talk about? If not, how much more would Dr. O'Toole suggest we put away? I know he was asked this earlier as a general question and that he probably cannot be specific on it. Does he have any specific recommendations?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: I will take less.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: I will come back in because I did not have time in my first contribution. This is slightly related to Deputy Neville's point. We hear the phrase "windfall taxes" thrown around a lot. Is there an exact definition of it? Can someone tell me exactly how much it is? I can work out how much it is. The underlying deficit this year is €4.2 billion. Next year, it is going to be...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute (15 Jul 2025)

Edward Timmins: Is that written anywhere?

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