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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Cuirim fáilte roimh na finnéithe. I will pick up on some points, starting with IFAC and then on to the ESRI. Mr. Barnes expects a surplus of €4.5 billion this year. Is that correct?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: That is taking on board the €2.5 billion contingency fund put into the budget last year. That would be spent.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: To summarise, if the Government spends €2.5 billion on one-off cost-of-living measures between now and the end of the year, IFAC still projects a €4.5 billion surplus this year.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: The stance the Government set out last year in terms of expenditure would be kept.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: It would stick to that but the big difference is that instead of being €8.3 billion in deficit, we would be €4.5 billion in surplus. That would be a turnaround of close to €13 billion to the better.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Okay. The Minister stood up on the floor and said the Government expected a budget deficit next year of €8 billion and could not go back to the situation of "If we have it, we spend it". That was an issue. We had to reduce the deficit and there was a pathway there. We have seen a bonanza and a €13 billion turnaround, yet IFAC says the Government should not do anything more...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: I will come on to permanent measures, but this point concerns one-off measures.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Is that always the case? Say we do not do as Mr. Barnes suggests and just use the €2.5 billion; say we use €4 billion but it is properly targeted. If you offset the price increases in energy for low-income deciles, you are not creating inflationary pressure. It is only if you do what the Government did the last time, which was 90% untargeted, that you create inflationary pressure.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: How does the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council arrive at the view that €2.5 billion is the appropriate figure for one-off measures? Is it just because that was announced last year, before we had a cost-of-living crisis, or has it carried out assessments as to the impact of this crisis on these families?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: How will it impact domestic demand, which we have seen contracting over the last while? There is also talk of a potential recession and so forth.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Does the council have a projected figure for the general Government balance for 2023?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: If we go to budget 2023 and look at the package that has been outlined, we see that there is an expenditure envelope of €2.65 billion. However, when you take away the public sector pay deal, if approved, the number is reduced to about €1.6 billion. In the context of a cost-of-living crisis, a healthcare system that is falling apart and needing more investment in housing,...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Does Mr. Barnes agree with the figures I outlined? Unallocated expenditure is €2.65 billion and if the public sector pay deal goes through, it is likely to come down to approximately €1.6 billion.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Yes.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: I wish to ask the ESRI a final question.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Mr. Barnes is saying there is not a lot of space. We are in a far better position than we were last year. There is not a lot of space because the Government has set out in its summer economic statement that this is what it is going to do. Mr. Barnes is concurring with that. There is space if one wants it. I am dealing with families in Donegal who are homeless, kids who are in hostels and...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: Or one could raise tax on the wealthier, which would reduce inflation.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: I welcome our guests to the committee. I do not mean to correct Deputy Durkan, but I must mention that when Ireland introduced a wealth tax in 1975, I was not even on this earth.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: My point is that at the time, we did not have many computers or indeed the Internet. The reason it was discontinued was the cost of collection, so that is the fact. The country that previous speakers were trying to identify which operates a wealth tax with a larger economy is France. It is still operating it despite many changes of government. They are not just the Deputy's facts but-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (7 Sep 2022)

Pearse Doherty: -----they are the actual facts. Dr. McDonnell spoke about the overall budgetary package. He said he thinks it is appropriate. We know that the non-allocated expenditure that the Government has available to it for budget 2023 is €2.7 billion. That must accommodate the public sector pay deal if it is agreed. If it is agreed, the non-allocated expenditure will come down to...

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