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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy. We all just tried to play our part during what was an awfully challenging and difficult two years. I remember being in this committee and releasing previous stability programme updates at a time in which we had more than 600,000 on the employment wage subsidy scheme. I vividly remember many of the moments over the last two years in which we were so concerned regarding...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The Department, the Government and I acknowledge that the challenges many families and businesses now face with the rising cost of living are a real challenge for many. However, this is the reason why at different points this year, we brought forward different measures to try to help people with the rising cost of living. They involve the change to excise on fuel, the reduction in VAT on...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy for his points. I wish to return briefly to a figure I shared earlier with the committee. I referred to 2.5 million people at work. That 2.5 million is for 2023 as opposed to 2022. I will comment on the points made by Deputy Canney. The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform is aware of the impact that cost price inflation is having on the viability of contracts....

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I will come back to the Deputy with the detail of that. When we did Housing for All and when we did the revision in the budgetary strategy for the Government last year, funding was set aside to help local authorities in that work. I will come back to him with the detail of that funding and how it is being made available.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: Regarding rent caps, as the Deputy will know, the Government has in place limits on the degree to which rent can be increased at any point in time. The reason we do not have the kind of cap the Deputy wants is that we believe it will ultimately lead to a reduction in the supply of rental accommodation and to even more landlords leaving the rental sector, with the accommodation and rental...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy for the two messages he sent to me. They were appreciated. I appreciate the impact that so many face, particularly those on social welfare and fixed incomes, due to the rising cost of energy. That is why, since the start of the year, we have put in place three separate packages of measures, with much of them being aimed at those who are on low incomes. It is why we...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: With respect to the Deputy, he made a point that many of the measures that we brought in are general. That is true, but at the same time he has criticised me for those general measures not being big enough. I am sorry I was not present at the debate on the Finance (Covid-19 and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2022 recently. I was here making a presentation. I am sure the Deputy was saying...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I am confused by the Deputy's stance. Earlier in our exchange, he was critical of the nature of general measures and the fact that he and I benefit from them. A moment ago, he said they should still be bigger.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I am confused by what the Deputy said. We have targeted measures, which are aimed particularly at those at greatest risk of fuel poverty. The Deputy made a point about a prolonged effect of a change in energy pricing. As he knows, in our document, we outlined other scenarios that could take place that would see an increase in energy prices of between 50% and 75%, and the impact that could...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: At the moment we have no reason to update our forecast again in respect of corporate tax revenue for 2023. Our reason for that is that while I still think it is more likely than not that the corporate tax directive will be agreed later in the year in respect of the minimum effective tax rate, it has not yet been agreed. Furthermore, the OECD is committed to making a statement by the summer...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: We are not in a position at the moment to forecast what it will be beyond 2023. We found it a difficult enough process trying to reach a view on the number of people who could come to the country next year and then the cost per person or per family that could be involved. As it is, there was a fair bit of judgment involved in that figure. As to what the figure will be beyond 2023, I think...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: At the moment, from an Irish point of view, there is not much likelihood of that kind of support becoming available. If the European Union does make a decision to change the recovery fund that is in place or find new ways of making funding available, I think the vast majority of that will be available to countries that are on the front line of receiving people into their jurisdictions. At...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I absolutely appreciate the really important role carers play in society and in homes and families, helping those who face very difficult situations. The responsibility for that, though, sits with the Department of Health rather than me. I am afraid I am not in a position to tell the Deputy about the detailed policies I am sure the Department of Health has to help with the number of carers...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: It is a programme for Government commitment to look to bring in indexation of income tax rates and social welfare payments budget by budget. I think the case for indexation is well understood from a social welfare point of view, but it tends to be less appreciated in respect of income tax. The fact is that if an effort is not made to move the entry point into higher rates of income tax year...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: Of course, I will share the information on that with all members of the committee. On whether we have plans to change motor tax, that is a budgetary matter and, respectfully, we will decide it budget by budget. Changes we have made to motor tax and vehicle registration tax, VRT, have had a very positive impact on changing the kinds of new vehicles, in particular, that are being purchased,...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes, the Chairman is correct that it is not taken into account in the stability programme update, because the update is prepared only on the basis of decisions that have been made. The forthcoming negotiations on public sector pay have not even properly begun, so it would be very premature and probably inappropriate for me to try to prejudge their outcome. Given a decision has not been made...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: That will be a factor the Government will have to take into account in reaching an agreement with our public servants. The three issues that have the greatest impact on national finance forecasts are always what is done with social welfare rates, what is done with health expenditure and what happens with public pay. That is one of the three big levers that have the most significant effect...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The IMF is an exceptionally important organisation and, like any organisation that gives advice to government, it tends to be in favour of tax-broadening measures. My experience of bringing in tax base-broadening measures, however, is that they are rarely as straightforward as we might expect. We would have to think very carefully about bringing in significant additional tax-raising...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: We have more than tapped into it. It was spent in one day because it was so badly needed.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance (4 May 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: We can begin the path to rebuilding the rainy day fund only if we are in a position of balance within our national finances or in one of surplus. It would be a very difficult sell to explain why we were borrowing to put money into a rainy day fund. Moreover, it would be very difficult to do in an environment in which the rate of interest at which countries are borrowing is increasing. We...

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