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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I will have, at that point, the latest macroeconomic data and the fiscal data. That will be incorporated and made available to the Oireachtas at the earliest possible opportunity. From working with my officials, I am assured that the earliest opportunity I can make that available is next Friday, which I will do.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The Government, the Minister, Deputy McGrath, and I are very committed to delivering inside the parameters we have outlined in the summer economic statement. Both of us have said there will be once-off measures happening in 2022 that will be paid for within this year and will be separate to the provisioning that we make for next year.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I believe that it is fair to say the Government has not made a decision on that yet. We have been very clear there would be packages and measures within 2022. What would happen then to fit the scenario described by Deputy Doherty if some of those measures were to extend into 2023 is they would then be on top of the summer economic statement parameters. We have not made the decision but-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: Just let me finish. We are currently evaluating what would be the right kind of intervention and what would give the most help to households and businesses. The Minister, Deputy McGrath, and I are working on what the duration of that support would be. If it was to go into 2023 then it would be in addition to the summer economic statement parameters.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: If there was to be something in 2023 that was to extend to deal with one-off measures, given that the parameters we brought forward do not include provision for one-off measures, it would be in addition to it.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The work is under way. The meeting of energy ministers at which the broad principles of that approach were agreed concluded on Friday. The President of the European Commission made a statement today in which she committed to it. We do not produce back of a cigarette pack numbers. That is not the way we can do a budget and it is certainly not something I would share with this committee....

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: -----a revenue forecast to this committee that we would feel confident we can use in our budgetary arithmetic.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I will give consideration to the point the Deputy raised. I know it is a matter in which he is interested. It is the case that some parts of the economy and some firms are doing well and are in a position to support their employees. We will give consideration to the Deputy's point. There has been a moderation of our worst fears about diesel and petrol prices but even in the €1.80...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: Indexation of social welfare payments is a decision for the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. He will work with the Minister, Deputy Humphreys, on it. We are both aware of the value of indexation, whether for taxation or social welfare payments for those who need and deserve additional help. We are also looking to see how or if we can deliver that inside the constraints of the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I will make a brief response to the points aimed at me. I confirmed earlier today at a public event where I launched the report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare that I will not be bringing to the Government proposals in relation to inheritance. I have made that clear. I respect and recognise the work that the commission has done. It is a 500-page report containing over 100...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The question the Deputy put to me in many ways sums up the challenge we have. Out of the additional surplus we have delivered this year, the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform and I will make a decision and recommend to the Government how much of that should be used. We have not made that decision yet.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: We are working on our final surplus estimate for the year but it will be higher than we indicated in the summer economic statement. How much higher it will be I am not in a position to confirm now because that work is under way. As the Deputy acknowledged in his question, the challenge is that much of that additional surplus is delivered by corporate tax.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The scenario we have to grapple with concerns what would happen if we were funding one-offs out of corporate tax revenue and had to repeat one-offs at another point when the corporate tax revenue was gone.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: This is the challenge we have.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: We are nowhere near making a decision as to the principle of doing it, let alone the figure. The approach both of us are using is to try to see what are the right measures and what will help. Once we are clear on the right measures, and both of us are keenly aware of the business issue the Deputy raises, then the cost follows from those measures.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: The surplus is higher than in the summer economic statement. Given that higher figure, the Minister, Deputy Michael McGrath, and I are trying to work to identify the measures.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: They will be once-off measures. IFAC also warned us about the need to get the balance right between them being affordable beyond 2022 and not adding to inflation. We are keenly aware - and the Deputy has acknowledged this in his question - of the possibility of finding ourselves in a world undergoing a further and prolonged energy shock. That affects the profitability of very large...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: I fully agree with that. If the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform and I are in a position to have clarity regarding what a revenue gain will be 2023, of course, we will want to bring that forward and inform the Oireachtas and use that in our work. I think both of us are being quite clear this evening in saying that is not what we are banking on. There is much work to be done in...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: On the freak budgetary interventions, we have not even completed this budget, as the Deputy knows. He has summarised very well the fact that it is only a few days away, which the Minister, Deputy McGrath, and I are keenly aware of. When we do our budget and announce our measures, that will include measures for 2022 that we do not anticipate changing. The Minister has made the point, and I...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion (Resumed) (14 Sep 2022)

Paschal Donohoe: Covid was a period in which we had very low inflation. In fact, we had deflation on a few occasions. Economies were closed. We are now in a high-inflation environment, with a record number of people at work. We need to put measures in place that will work and make a difference but are appropriate to that different environment. That is what we are trying to do.

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