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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: So, maybe if I could maybe draw upon that analogy of stepping on the brakes, there maybe is a case to check the brakes every now and again and make sure that the brake discs and the shoes inside there are actually in order and if I could take you through the following graphs. The first one up there is the increase in credit between property and other sectors excluding financial...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: So what there is, is ... there is all these escalating ... it's not going downhill, there's all these massive cyclical taxes as percentage of revenue massively up ... total revenue moving massively up, credit rate of credit advance to households we see dropping and credit rates instructions going up quite significantly, percentage of commercial credit for construction, so on and so forth....

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: But the point I'm making, Mr. Cardiff, is that this is not new information uncovered by the inquiry.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: This is factual information that was to hand------

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: -----to economists, to the Central Bank, to the Department of Finance, to Government of the day and everybody else. So, it's not a case of, "Well, we know this now, we didn't know that back then", it was known back then. And this would show that there was 24% of the Irish economy in construction. It would show that if there was to be a slowdown there, that there was a relationship between...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Okay.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: So, if I can say, Mr. Doyle or Mr. Cardiff. Mr. Doyle in his evidence yesterday to this committee said there was no research whatsoever carried out internally by the Department of Finance in-house, no documentation whatsoever, no modelling, no assessment of any kind with regard to the soft landing theory. This was information that you were hearing from other sources, other reports ... there...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Would you concur with that view given by Mr. Doyle yesterday afternoon that there was no documentation inside there that there was a soft landing?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Yes.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: But you're quoting the soft line landing this afternoon, or the soft landing theory-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Just hear me out a second.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: You're quoting the soft landing theory with us here. We have to establish where that theory came from. Mr. Doyle, to us yesterday afternoon, confirmed to us that there was no - unless you have information to the contrary - that there was no modelling, no assessment, no financial examination that they had actually based the soft landing theory upon, that it was other reports externally...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: And we accept that but we also ... I ... are you accepting that there was no Department of Finance examination to back up the soft landing period that was evidence of its own?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Okay-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: All right. Deputy Kieran O'Donnell.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Give him time to respond, now, Deputy.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Now, Deputy, that's leading now.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: We might be moving into repetition here now as well, Deputy, because it may have been answered but I'll allow a bit of time for it.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Finish up now for supplementary-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (18 Jun 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Thank you very much. Deputy John Paul Phelan.

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