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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: It will take place on the second Tuesday in October.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: The receipts we are collecting constitute real money. We welcome that there is buoyancy in relation to corporation tax receipts but, at the same time, we cannot ignore the underlying trend. The growth has been truly extraordinary. In 2011, we collected about €4 billion. Last year it was €22.6 billion. This year we believe it will exceed €24 billion. When the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: The exact relationship between the existing fund and the new fund is one we will consider. One option would be to assimilate the existing reserve fund into the new fund but that detail is under consideration and will be the subject of discussion. However, it is a separate fund and it has a longer term focus and will be invested. The existing fund is administered by the National Treasury...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: I will be very brief. The scoping paper we will publish will set out different scenarios for options and we will have to determine how much is transferred into the fund over time. That will be dealt with at a high level in the scoping paper that is about to be published.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: Much has been written about forecasts in the last week or so. Large surpluses of €65 billion are forecast for between this year and the following three years. They are only forecasts; it is not money we have now but represents the central scenario and the current best estimate by officials in the Department of what is likely to happen. Additional demands may arise. We discussed...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: I thank Deputy Nash. The answer is that there was a significant one-off transaction in stamp duty in 2022. That has affected the baseline position. As the Deputy stated, the changes in excise are a function of the policy choices and transactions we have made to those taxes.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: We do not get into individual transactions.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: I also do not have the detail of individual transactions, nor should I have.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: The scoping paper we will publish shortly will look at a number of international models. I acknowledge what the Deputy said about being constructive and I value the work of the committee. This is important work for the committee to undertake as it is a significant decision and will have a major impact. We have yet to decide on the detail of the investment strategy. It very much depends on...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: On the investment strategy of a fund that we would set up, I do not believe it would make sense to invest it all in one economy, that would be taking on too much risk. It would need to be diversified. We will have ample opportunity to discuss the detail of that. On corporation tax, we have factored in that €2 billion hit in 2025. It remains the current estimate of the Department of...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: I thank the Deputy. There was a lot there and we will not be able to cover all of it, but maybe I will touch on the national debt, corporation tax and the rental market and the Minister for Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform, Deputy Donohoe, might touch on the Ukraine issue and the making of provision in that regard. The Deputy spoke quite a bit about housing...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: I will add to what the Minister for Finance said. He spoke about the overall position we are in with regard to receipts and surpluses. The truth is that other countries all over the world would look at the position we are in with envy. It underlines the importance of us making the right decisions for our people now and in the future. Wherever the Minister, other Government colleagues and...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: The Government response during the pandemic added approximately €30 billion to the national debt. We also had national debt prior to the global financial crisis and the economic crisis that happened in Ireland in the years following that. Those crises undoubtedly added to the national debt. The rescue of the banking system also added to the debt. We can certainly provide a...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: The debt is falling relative to the size of the economy. That is generally how the debts of countries are measured. We are making progress in that regard. Table 1 on page 5 shows the debt in nominal terms - gross and net figures - and the debt ratio relative to GNI*. As the Deputy can see, in the current year we can expect the closing position of the debt to be 79% of GNI*, and falling to...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: I thank the Deputy for her question. That is a point that is often made. The Government and I consistently acknowledge that many people are under real pressure. The Minister, Deputy Donohoe, and I meet people all of the time when we are out and about doing constituency work. They share the same experiences with us as Deputy Ryan’s constituents do with her. Most people recognise...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: The fund is set up primarily to meet age-related costs but not exclusively so. There will be other demands on the State which we know will arise in the future. We know of climate action measures and that the digitalisation agenda will cost money. If one thinks about the cost of the digitalisation of our health service, for example, there will be very real costs involved in that. but...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: We can keep those quite brief. I want to acknowledge the Cathaoirleach Gníomhach's point. The Minister, Deputy Donohoe, and I came into the Oireachtas in 2007. We have both been here for 16 years. We were here for the end of the economic boom and we were here for the really dark times. Of course, that has had an influence on our outlook and the outlook of the Government because we...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Ministers for Finance, and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform (26 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: It was a small number of one-off transactions that combined to have a material impact.

Re-introduction of Mortgage Interest Relief: Motion [Private Members] (25 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: These are just the demands made in the past couple of weeks. All of these are undoubtedly worthy proposals in themselves but when they are aggregated, they certainly add up to hundreds of millions of euro of additional expenditure at a minimum.

Re-introduction of Mortgage Interest Relief: Motion [Private Members] (25 Apr 2023)

Michael McGrath: They are not.

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