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Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: Okay, I will finish. As regards the unemployment figures and the growth in jobs there are two elements: the reduction in expenditure and an increase in taxation and PRSI income. In what way has the Fiscal Advisory Council calculated that in forecasting for the continuation of the year?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: I would make the same argument back to Mr. Smyth. It is too early to say that the correction should be €2 billion until further data come in. I think we broadly agree on that point.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: I would nearly ask Professor Barrett, if he is into forecasting and he has gone into elections, whether he wants to forecast the date of the next general election, but I will not.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: Professor McHale answered Deputy Spring on the adjustment resulting in a reduction of €1 billion in GDP. There is also a confidence shock for the ordinary punter, which affects whether they spend or save their money. Would he agree that at this stage an adjustment of €2 billion could undermine GDP by a far greater figure than €1 billion?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: We have gone through several years.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: If one looks at what the Irish economy has gone through, 0.5 may not be the optimal figure. If €2 billion was taken out of the economy at this stage, the effect on GDP could be far greater than €1 billion. I accept that it is a question of forecasting and there is no specific figure.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: My point is that if one makes an adjustment of €2 billion in this budget, one could tear the arse out of consumers' confidence and put us into a different position, and that is quite possible. Would Professor McHale agree with that?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: At the end of the day, it is a judgment call that will have to be made by the Cabinet. There are equal dangers in the recommendation. With hindsight, if one looks back to last year, when there was a decision to be made between a €3.1 billion adjustment and a €2.6 billion adjustment, which, like a table tennis ball, went back and forth, would Professor McHale agree that the...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: There is also a consumer confidence element in it.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: That cannot be captured by raw data.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: Based on the fiscal council's figures and forecast, if one takes the figure for the first five months as €404 million, we are talking about approximately €600 million at six months. In last year's returns, it was the second half of the year when the tax take improved. What figures for the tax take has the fiscal advisory council included in its forecast? Did it expect the...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: What did the fiscal advisory council forecast for the full year? If it is €404 million for five months, did they forecast what it would be for 12 months?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: I very much agree with Mr. Smyth that it would be prudent to wait until later in the year to make this kind of definite decision on a correction of €2 billion, or how far ahead we will be on the tax take and how the employment figures will go. It is still very much a forecast but the Cabinet makes a decision on the correction as there will be far more data available to it. Is that...

Written Answers — Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 15. To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine the interactions he and his Department have had with other Departments here, and also with the European Commission with regard to meeting our EU targets on greenhouse gas emission targets; if any concerns been expressed regarding the Harvest 2020 policy at an EU level; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26126/14]

Written Answers — Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 28. To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine the action his Department is taking to meet our EU 2020 targets on greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector, which it is projected we will not meet; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26125/14]

Written Answers — Department of Environment, Community and Local Government: Dormant Accounts Fund Administration (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 116. To ask the Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government if the dormant accounts disbursement scheme for 2013-2016 is publicly available; if he will provide a copy to this Deputy; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26476/14]

Written Answers — Department of Justice and Equality: Legislative Measures (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 146. To ask the Minister for Justice and Equality if she will address the issues raised in correspondence (details supplied) related to provisions on incitement to hatred in Irish and EU law; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [26422/14]

Written Answers — Department of Health: Hospital Services (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 168. To ask the Minister for Health if he will ensure funding is provided to allow bariatric surgery at the centres that provide it; the plans that are under way to clear the waiting lists for this treatment; when he expects to meet the target of a maximum of a one-year waiting list for this surgery; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26388/14]

Written Answers — Department of Health: Hospital Services (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 169. To ask the Minister for Health from a policy perspective if his Department or the Health Service Executive takes account of the medium and long-term savings that accrue to the health service from the short-term costs of bariatric surgery for morbidly obese patients due to the savings that accrue from not having to treat heart disease, diabetes, chronic lung diseases and gangrenous legs,...

Written Answers — Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport: Vehicle Clamping (19 Jun 2014)

Kevin Humphreys: 209. To ask the Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport if the contractor who carries out clamping on behalf of Dublin City Council will be regulated by the National Transport Authority under the Vehicle Clamping Bill; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26376/14]

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