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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Are you saying that the number wouldn't have made a difference?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: There has been evidence given to the committee that it's about the framework used in modern macroeconomics that was at fault here, and there's been suggestions that no matter how many economists you had in the Department, there was a bit of herd mentality there. Do you subscribe to that notion, that-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: But some people ... some people were calling ... like, for example, in your opinion now today, do you believe that Morgan Kelly was correct in his analysis?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: What about the details of how you were looking at it and how he was looking at it in terms of ... in terms of summing it up and not agreeing with everything but do you believe on the ... on the ... in fairness that his was mostly correct in relation to his analysis while the analysis of the Department and the team of economists that you had failed to see what he was ... what he was seeing in...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: But can I ask you ... can you give the committee any examples where economic policy was changed as a direct result of a critical report from the Department's economic division and also can I ask you to give an example where your own analysis differed from the consensus view? Did you yourself offer - and I'm not just talking about a number of years ago ... today or in the last number of years...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: But, Mr. McCarthy, we know from-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: It's on the same question ... but we know from people, for example, Marie Mackle, who was answering parliamentary questions ... and she wasn't in the position that you were in but she was offering a contrarian view. The question I have ... and to go back to the question is: can you give an example to the committee, right up until now, where economic policy was changed as a direct result of a...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Perhaps give examples where an example where economic policy was changed as a direct result of a critical report from the Department's economic division, that's the first part of the question. The second part was an example of where your analysis differed from the consensus view. Was that offered and was it ever taken on board? Examples-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: And if there was never one, then let's just state that. If there was, give examples.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Go raibh maith agat, a Chathaoirligh, agus fáilte arís, Can I ask you why, in your view, was bank recapitalisation progressed on a phased basis, given that the original intention was for a recapitalisation programme of up to €10 billion only?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: So did you ... when you say than ... give them more than they clearly needed? So at that time, were you aware that they needed more capital than the €10 billion?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Yes-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Well, that takes me onto my second question. Can you tell us about the level of co-operation by both AIB and Bank of Ireland at the time of the ... capital-raising options, including asset sales, that you mentioned and, in particular, whether the level of co-operation may have contributed to the amount of capital ultimately required by both institutions?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Okay, can I ask you ... just I'm just referring to your core booklet, Vol. 3, and it's page 146, and this is the document from the NTMA on the 28 March 2011. It's the document that recommends the burning of bondholders - senior bondholders - in all of the six institutions to the Government at that time. I think the eligible senior debt they estimate across the six banks was €16.367...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: At that time, now, the Minister was talking about Anglo and Nationwide, but the NTMA recommendation was across all six banks. And my particular question was that the NTMA were supporting the burning of senior bondholders while at the same time being of the view that they would be able to access money from the ... the international money markets within a number of years. That the case wasn't...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Can I ask you, in your statement you say, on page 90, in relation to the Government's proposal to the troika, you say: As we expected, the Troika were not dissatisfied with the Plan – in some ways it was more ambitious than they might have expected in regard to structural reform. Of course there remained differences arising from differences in the economic forecasts, but the basic...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: So it was mainly made up of Irish Government, with ... excluding the banking part of it?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Okay. Mr. Cardiff, in your statement, on page 2008 or 208 - 2008, Freudian slip there - 208 you say, "I had spoken to the Minister during the summer [this is the summer of 2010] about the necessity to make greater upfront fiscal adjustments for 2011, and to announce them early." You go on to say that at a gathering of senior civil servants in September or early October you outlined the...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: If I can ask - if that is the final question - at the end of that speech Mr. Cardiff, you ask those, to be a hero, you ask them ... you say, "We have a crisis, get into it, fight for change, fight for savings, fight to deliver more services with less money, get radical, think the unthinkable." And then you pose a question where you say "in four years' time we'll look back and we'll ask...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

Pearse Doherty: But the ... sorry, the direct question, because Mr. Cardiff you introduced the quote-----

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