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Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: How much would we need to spend each year to not fall, as a percentage of GDP? Does Mr. McCarthy know that figure?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Okay.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: In respect of the statement on Friday, Mr. McCarthy mentioned that the deficit would probably come in at about 2.1%. Is that correct?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: I presume this is not on the back of an envelope and that the Minister is getting it from the Department.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Let us take the figure of 2.1%. In terms of value, would each 0.1 percentage be about €200 million?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: The Minister and the programme update stated 2.3% so there is about €400 million which could be spent and still come in at the 2.3%. Is that correct? The Minister has indicated that there will be Estimate processes, particularly in health and other areas, to deal with overruns and that he still plans to come in on target at 2.3% but because of the tax profile and buoyancy, there...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Given that the Department of Finance is unable to tell us why there has been a 45% increase in corporation tax, does Mr. McCarthy believe that the Department's capacity to forecast accurately is still challenged?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: I appreciate that. Is there a possibility that this small number of firms, which account for the majority of the corporation tax paid, could have achieved a 45% increase in profits in recent months, and this led, in turn, to a 45% increase in tax taken by the State?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Does the Department of Finance plan to try to get to the bottom of it and understand what is going on?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Okay. We might come back to that in future to try to figure out what is going on. We are dealing with the Department of Finance forecasting. We discussed the expenditure benchmark and the fiscal space. The figures published in April were between €1.2 billion and €1.5 billion. Which is it? Is the space for this year's budget €1.2 billion or €1.5 billion?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: What is the assumption today?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Who tells who? Mr. McCarthy is the chief economist in the Department. I presume Mr. McCarthy informs the politicians that the expenditure benchmark is either €1.2 billion or €1.5 billion. I presume the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has already endorsed Mr. McCarthy's projections.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Therefore, there is obviously a number that is agreed at this stage. Is that correct?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Let me get understand this clearly. Mr. McCarthy informs the Minister for Finance that the expenditure benchmark only allows a package of €1.2 billion. Is that correct?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: Mr. McCarthy is telling me that the figure he is basing the forecast on is €1.2 billion.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: That is the question. It is the upper limit. To stay within the expenditure benchmark, the figure for the package is €1.5 billion.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: That is fine. Since the Department is forecasting five years out and five years back, I imagine the officials have done the arithmetic in terms of the fiscal space for each of the subsequent years. What is the fiscal space for next year? What is the range?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: It is for budget 2016, in other words, for 2017.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: It was around €9 billion.

Written Answers — Department of Social Protection: Family Income Supplement (6 Oct 2015)

Pearse Doherty: 225. To ask the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Protection if notional pay is regarded as assessable earnings for the purpose of calculating a family income supplement payment; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [34551/15]

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