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Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I still believe it is more likely than not that there will be an agreement.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Given how sensitive all of this is, for me to put a probability on it would not be helpful.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I still believe it is more likely than not that there will be an orderly Brexit, but the chances that there will be no agreement and that there will be a disorderly Brexit are clearly growing.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It is to ensure the legal provisions are in place to allow access and flights to continue between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The Commission and the United Kingdom are engaging with each other, working on an agreement that would put in place a contingency regulation for air connectivity, providing for a time extension of seven months to allow airlines, particularly airlines impacted on by ownership rules, to implement restructuring plans, subject to certain conditions.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: In our current central scenario, where there is an agreement and a transitionary period, in 2019 the number of people at work will be 2.32 million, an increase on the base figure of 2.259 million. In a no-deal scenario in 2019 we anticipate 15,000 fewer jobs being created than would have otherwise happened. In 2020 we believe 52,000 fewer jobs would be created.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: No, although perhaps we are splitting hairs. There would be 52,000 fewer jobs created. This means that more jobs would be created than in a previous year but fewer jobs would be created in a no-deal scenario.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We have done that. We are anticipating that the unemployment rate will go from approximately 5% to 7%.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It would amount to 30,000 to 40,000 being affected.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Not really. If we were to publish many scenarios and their economic consequences, it would undermine the utility of the work done in the first place. What we have just said is based on the best information available to us and it is what we think is most likely to happen.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We have not done anything beyond what we have already published. We have a central case scenario which was included on budget day and there is a no-deal scenario, the figures for which I published last week. We do not have a secret set of figures beyond them.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: That is correct.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The Senator has been good enough to acknowledge the independence of the Revenue Commissioners in the first place. Therefore, I cannot ask them to do something in how they interpret the law. It is all part and parcel of recognising that they are independent and evaluate tax law as they see fit. I have had much contact about this matter and the Senator is aware of its origins. The Revenue...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We are talking about if there is any space for anything to be done on the matter and there may not be. It refers to the interpretation of the law. I hope to be in a position where I can conclude looking at the matter in the next few days.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Simply that we are not, and that we are earning taxation on economic activity and value created inside our jurisdiction. It depends on what kind of finance Minister one is talking to and from where he or she comes. Finance Ministers from exporting economies tend to understand our point quickly.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It is fair to say that there is a group of countries with significant concerns about it. For that reason, it is unlikely to be agreed.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: There are three factors that I am clear on that have contributed to the issue facing us, the first of which is the general effect of cost inflation. Cost inflation has grown at a quicker pace than was anticipated when the original figures for the project were identified. Second, a number of specialised forms of work need to be done and have, in turn, become even more expensive, for example,...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It was anticipated, but the magnitude of change was even bigger than anticipated. If a rate of cost inflation shifts even a little in a given year, the compound effect of that over four to five years has a significant effect on the project.

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