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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Right. And, if you look there at quarter 1, 2001, and quarter 1, 2002, this is the period I'm talking about. And, what we see in the graph there is that residential new house prices and second-hand house prices are kind of flat-lined going back to '92, then they're rising, then the impact of the Bacon report is beginning to kick in, and we see a modest reduction in house prices, and then we...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Can I talk about one of the other factors that's at play actually during that time and I bring up the next graph? This is the ratio of average new house price to average industrial wage. If you look at both graphs one is new house price and the other is average second hand house price. What we see here is that the ratio is in and around '96 or '97, is about four times the income of a...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: That would be your view?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Indeed. Just to get that on the record Mr. McCreevy, the graphs I have shown you this afternoon, the relationship with the cost of trying to buy a home after 2002, and the relationship of that the cost of buying a home was actually having on a person's earning capacity, you don't see any relationship of the pullback on the measures by Bacon to those two outcomes?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Would you recognise that the Bacon measures are reflected or not reflected in the graphs?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Thank you. Deputy Kieran O'Donnell.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: 2003, Deputy-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: It's the preparation for 2004

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Deputy, to assist you here - I'll give you a bit of time on this. If there's an ambiguity, kind of with the datelines and everything else, we can deal with this over the coffee break, and maybe just come back to it at that moment. So if you could maybe make the question and you'll have a couple of minutes when people are having their coffee break.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: All right, we can sort out the dates and maybe if Deputy-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Yes.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Okay. It's in that regard now, Mr. McCreevy, I'd like to give you a document as well during the break. It's a document from your own Department. I think it's come out in July there under a freedom of information request and I just want to deal with that after the break, but it comes from your own Department and it's from the Office of the Minister for Finance and it relates to the...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: We are back into public session. So there's just a bit of chronology and datelines with regard to a question there, that I would ask both Deputy O'Donnell and Mr. McCreevy to deal with and then I'll move on to Senator D'Arcy.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: You can wrap up now shortly, Deputy.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I gave you a document there before the break Mr. McCreevy.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: I'll put it on the screen in front of you there, if you don't mind, okay, and we may need to come back to it again as we kind of wrap up but to just kind of familiarise yourself again with it once more. This is of 19 June 2013 and it's the Office of the Minister for Finance and I'll just be asking the investigation team to be putting this in as an evidence document for further hearings...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: And I-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: -----and I am aware of that, like, and that's why I am not ... but, first of all, just are you familiar with it or, more importantly, I suppose, was there a belief by yourself and your senior officials that, "The period of exceptional economic growth enjoyed by Ireland is over", and was that the belief present in your Department by the middle of June 2003?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: Okay, coming back to the earlier question I had to you this ... with regard to Mr. Wright's report, where he talks about the cyclical nature of the budgets and that the surpluses were very much based on cyclical expenditure. Was this the culmination of that budget strategy, that from 2004 onwards, the surpluses were going to be based upon extraordinary cyclical measures, particularly those...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (1 Jul 2015)

Ciarán Lynch: But the ... I'll just repeat the question again just to focus it for you, Mr. McCreevy. Is the surpluses were based upon cyclical measures that-----

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