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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Scenario 2. The commercial corporate, you've ... speaking ... you've looked for a 1.5% reduction per annum in scenario 1 and a 1.25% in scenario 2. Why are you taking a lower reduction in scenario 2 rather than scenario 1 for the corporate?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Sorry?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: But you put a 4% reduction over three years, which is only about 1.25% per annum, more or less, there or thereabouts, and the commercial corporate made up the bulk of the majority of the loans. So how could you do a scenario 2 look at ... that you have a smaller reduction in the value of commercial property, rather than scenario 1, when scenario 2 was supposed to be the more worse-case...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: But corporate commercial lending was the majority of the lending; particularly certainly in the Anglo case it was the majority-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: The question I suppose I want to ask is that commercial property was falling in price from, really 2007 into 2008, well above the 4%, and the two questions I have are the logic for using 4% against a backdrop of real time where the fall in commercial property was higher, and secondly, if you had taken a realistic figure would the banks, and would Anglo Irish Bank, have required capital?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Yes, but, Mr. O'Connor, the viewpoint would have been that scenario 2 was a worst-case scenario when, in fact, in terms of commercial property you've actually gone for a lower reduction in the value ... fall in the value of commercial properties in scenario 2 rather than scenario 1. It, kind of, doesn't appear to be logical in terms of analysis ... a base of analysis.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Is it logical on the basis? It's a critical point, Chairman.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: The question really I suppose I want to ask is: you used a figure of 4% for a fall over a three year period when the fall over that period was of the order of over 60%. Property was already falling well above 4% alone in 2008, and when you looked at a worst-case scenario you actually increased the value of commercial property rather than reduced it, so the logic why-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: What was the reason for that?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: But the final question, if-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Yes, but sure, Chairman, it's-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: -----the critical question in this-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Chairman, it's a very straightforward question, and the question is: ye are a world-renowned accountancy firm and professional advisers. Ye went for a 4% reduction on average in commercial property over a three-year period between '08 and 2011, when commercial property went down in reality by 60 ... over 60%. When you looked at the worst-case scenario, scenario 2 rather than scenario 1, you...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Agreed with by whom, Mr. O'Connor?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Sorry, just let Mr. O'Connor finish.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: No, but I'd like to hear the answer, Chairman.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Thanks, Chairman. Welcome, Mr. Ahearne. On your appointment to the position of special adviser to the late Brian Lenihan in March '09, were you satisfied that the Minister and his officials were in possession of the management information that was necessary to make informed decisions such as the initial injection of capital of €4 billion into Anglo in May 2009? Was there recognition...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: So, when you joined on 18 March '09, what figure did the Minister for Finance believe was needed to be invested in Anglo?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: When you say a few months later, precisely?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (9 Sep 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: €5 billion and €10 billion?

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