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Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: The council's report this time is different from what I have seen in other reports. It is probably the most critical of the Government's assumptions that I have seen so far. Even though everybody is fixated on the €2 billion target, when we look at the other targets and projections the council is signalling a note of caution. My question was more about a structural issue. The...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: History tells us that they do not have a perfect crystal ball although it is obviously coming into better focus in recent years.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: It was not in my questioning. If people watched the committee yesterday, they will have seen a ding-dong between the Minister and me when he would not answer my questions. He suggested that is more a feeling involving where sales, PRSI levels, the sale of cement and the construction industry are at. They are data on car sales, etc. They are publicly available data of which he is perhaps...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: One of the stark things in the council's report is the spotlight it has put on expenditure over the period to 2018. It is something I am very concerned about myself. The discussion has happened earlier in terms of having no more austerity but an 8% drop comparative with GDP. What was very helpful in the report was the cross-country comparison which shows that Ireland has one of the lowest...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: I ask for some latitude to ask a couple of very quick questions. The council has approved the medium-term growth rates although it raised question marks about them. The council says they are at the optimistic end of the range. What is the range within which the council operates?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: Today, the chair of the Eurogroup stated it was unlikely that Ireland, or any country for that matter, would get retroactive bank capitalisation. Given that compliance with the debt rule is one on which the fiscal council must concentrate, does Professor McHale see any scope in this area? Yesterday, the Minister said the State will make an application for retroactive capitalisation but it...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: Prior to the fiscal compact treaty, our medium-term objective was set at 0.5%. Those countries with a debt level below 60% of GDP would be deemed to have a balanced budget if their structural deficit were not more than 1% while for countries such as Ireland’s it must be 0.5%. How does a different structural deficit rate through a country-specific recommendation lie with the fiscal...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: IFAC's report estimated that as a result of the CSO calculations in June, GDP will increase by €4.5 billion to €5 billion, increasing our GDP from 2.5% to 3%. If those calculations prove correct, our deficit should decrease by approximately 0.12%.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: That is what IFAC is forecasting.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: My questions are not about the bond yields, although I propose to comment briefly on that issue. On Professor McHale's comment that the quantative easing programme was responsible in part for the fall in Irish bonds, it could also be argued that it also played a part in the fall of bond yields in Greece. I do not believe Greece reaching its targets was the result of it being subject to a...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: The council's report identifies as an area of control the possible dampening of the property tax if house prices were to increase. The Government already has a strategy for housing. One of the areas identified is Government support where loan-to-value ratios are at 95%. This was criticised by the IMF in its report yesterday. Is this an issue of concern for the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: In relation to debt sustainability and the commentary today that it is unlikely that the retroactive recapitalisation of any instrument will be used for any country, is the reason this does not figure in the council's calculations the fact that it does not see it as being on the agenda?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: I accept that.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: In its report the council focuses on a number of particular areas outside its remit, including, for example, how a particular tax could be projected and so on. Perhaps the delegates might inform the committee of the area on which the council proposes to focus in its next report or is that decision made closer to the time? Is that information a secret at this point?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: I note that in terms of capital expenditure, there is a net capital reduction over the five year programme period provided for in the stability programme update. Is that an area the council is likely to examine in more detail? On the composition of the council - I may have asked this question previously and as such, it should not be taken as a reflection on anybody's ability - when it was...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: Is the council informed of the person who has been appointed for a two year term or is that a secret?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform: Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: That is fine.

Order of Business (24 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: Tá trí cheist agam ar reachtaíocht atá fógraithe. Baineann an chéad cheist le Bille leasaithe an ESM, which the Minister informed me will be brought forward to allow for the burning of bondholders into the future and potential retroactive recapitalisation of the banks. When is that legislation due to be published given that there is a deadline by which all of...

Order of Business (24 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: -----and a person must wait two and a half weeks to get an appointment. A constituent of mine who previously fought for Ireland cannot get passport clearance in time to go fight for her country.

Order of Business (24 Jun 2014)

Pearse Doherty: It is an issue that needs to be addressed. I have previously engaged with the relevant Ministers on this issue. The final issue relates to the Minister and the Department of Health. It was announced by the Government that a Supplementary Estimate for the Department of Health will again be necessary. This relates to the U-turn by Government, rightly so, in relation to discretionary...

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