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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Why would you think that the word "boom" was being circled?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Well, that's, I suppose, one way of looking at it.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Yes. Yes, that's fair enough. I suppose, I want to also refer to another document-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Okay. Vol. 2, page 105, which is a document prepared by yourself for the Tánaiste and Anne Donegan. The second paragraph of that document: In summary, the OECD is forecasting a growth rate of [around] 3 per cent next year, with a slightly stronger pickup than we have assumed in 2009. However, the language regarding Ireland is somewhat 'sensationalist'; we proposed (on a number of...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Was it common for the OECD to use that term "sensationalist" style of language?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Was it common for them to use ... like, you're ... I'm referring to-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Okay.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: So, was there-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: That's fair enough. The fact that they were using, to use your own term, sensationalist language in this document, was that an attempt by them to ... or was it ... or was it not - I should ... I can't ask a leading question - to highlight that there was pressures building in the Irish economy that should be acted upon?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: I want to refer again in relation to the OECD, to the evidence by Mr. Tom O'Connell, which he gave to the inquiry a few weeks back, and it was in relation to the way OECD and sometimes IMF, but it was specifically OECD country reports were produced. He said: We would be discussing or interacting with the IMF and the OECD, in particular with the OECD country reports, it was embarrassing....

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Now I want to turn to the ESRI quarterly commentary from the summer of 2007. It was referred to in the Honohan report, I think page 84. Morgan Kelly, in an article which was published in it, argued that most house price surges had ended in a fall of at least 50% in values. Furthermore, he went on to say there had been no quantitative, analytical evidence provided from the Central Bank, I...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: It was, kind of, given that there was options for want of a better term. But there was still-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Yes, but the dominant hand, was the soft landing hand.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: On the other end ... on the value end?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Yes.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: My time is very short now and I have just one more question that I want to get in. Really what I'm asking you, Mr. McCarthy, is, there's very little evidence, from looking at other countries in particular, whether in the European Union or outside of it, to support the soft-landing scenario, and yet ... and I'm talking about the value soft landing scenario, not the reduction in units...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: So was Japan the only example that was looked at?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: Was there enough of that analytical research and comparison done with other countries closer to home maybe than Japan?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: I have a minute and 20 seconds to bear with you and I have one more question that I have ask, so I can't really-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Nexus Phase (24 Jun 2015)

John Paul Phelan: -----well, if you can be very brief.

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