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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: They are absolute figures but the figures in the current medium-term fiscal plan for the latter year of that five-year period was done on a technical basis. The Government will have to return to that later in the year to put in a new fiscal plan.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes. Deputy Chambers will be aware of the detail of it.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: To complement what Deputy Chambers said there, as we look to the future, we have had a very significant increase in labour market participation already. We have never had more young people at work in Ireland than we have now. We have never had more women at work in Ireland than we have now. Overall, as important as all the individual policies from Government are, I believe what drives up...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: This year it is the same.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I absolutely know the impact of the increase in prices in recent years has had a real effect on households and businesses. I could see, particularly during the moments when inflation soared so quickly, the effect it had on people's ability to get by and live, and the ability of businesses to trade. I understand completely the effect it can have on many. It is raised with me regularly in my...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The Government will always monitor economic conditions. I am not in a position to give hypothetical commitments because I do not believe it is fair, but we will be dealing with the finance Bill tomorrow afternoon in the Dáil. It would extend the VAT measure on gas and electricity up to October. We are doing that – the Deputy asked me a question about the cost of living –...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: At the moment, I would see it as just a timing issue regarding when large taxpayers are due to pay us. It will be in the second half of the year before I know if there is anything different in this regard.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: With regard to the underlying deficit the Deputy referred to, it should be said we are running large headline surpluses at the moment. What we are doing is assuming what the deficit would be if a certain amount were to go away in a single year. With regard to the mix between current expenditure and capital expenditure, the majority will be in current expenditure rather than capital...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: We can give a breakdown of the mix between current expenditure and capital expenditure. Basically, and as the Deputy will know, the figures come from our asking what the deficit would be if we subtracted from our current position what we believe could be lost in a single year. Subtracting our expenditure from our revenue gets us to the underlying position. The majority of our expenditure...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I should ask the Deputy whether he is going to support the finance Bill in relation to spending local property tax.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: It is a relevant point. We are trying to broaden the tax base, and when we broaden the tax base-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: Is the Deputy supporting the legislation on the local property tax?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: It is a fair point. Every time I come into the Dáil, people say they want to widen the tax base, and every time I widen the tax base the Opposition tries to prevent it.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I do not believe the Deputy has.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: Under this, the Deputy has not.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The key difference is that this publication is under the new budget rules, whereas the stability programme update was under the previous budget rules.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The medium-term fiscal plan is over a five-year period, whereas the stability programme update was over a shorter period, one year. The medium-term plan is over a longer time period than the old publication that we would have done. The bigger difference is that they are both a reflection of different rules.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: Apologies if I was not clear enough. There were not two publications. There was just one, but that one publication contained two scenarios. There is the baseline of no tariffs and the second, which Deputy Fleming quizzed me on. We considered alternative scenarios too but we hit the question of how many would be enough. We decided to lay out one, regarding what the medium-term outcome...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The publication that we are referring to, the annual progress report, does not contain policy decisions. We will do the budget and it will form part of the medium-term fiscal plan that we are aiming to submit later in the year. The Commission will evaluate that year and the plan together. The annual progress report itself does not contain policy decisions, so the Commission has not had...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: A lot of other economies in the European Union are very open and depend heavily on exports. We do have a higher level of international investment in our economy than the norm but many of my finance minister colleagues have exactly the same concerns that we have. We are always aware of the one area of reliance and vulnerability we have, but every economy has an area of risk and a reliance...

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