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Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Exactly.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Under this legislation, the exposure to the State will be in excess of €175 million and will be actually €195 million across the four programmes. Is that correct?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: It is €140 million on the EU side, plus €35 million on the EIB side, €10 million for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and €10 million for the Council of Europe Development Bank. Are those the correct figures?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I understand that, but the legislation allows for a cap of €35 million. My question related to the worst-case scenario. Is the exposure under this legislation - let us forget about what comes after it - €195 million to the State?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: That is at this point-----

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: -----but the legislation allows for that to increase to €35 million.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I know we have so far agreed to only €7 million but the legislation enables us to increase that, does it not?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: That is my point. In the worst-case scenario, what does this legislation expose the State to? The worst-case scenario is that we go to the cap, which is €35 million. Am I right in saying the exposure the State could be on the hook for through this legislation is a maximum of €195 million?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: That is in only one programme, however. Four programmes are referred to in this legislation.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: The maximum exposure allowed for under the legislation, therefore, is just over €195 million at this point.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: With respect, we are talking about what is in this legislation. There are caps in the legislation regarding liabilities, and I am asking what happens if you add up all the caps on liabilities. I understand those liabilities have not, at this point, been created in full but I think it is a fair question. The caps on liabilities are in the legislation. My understanding is that that...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I thank the Minister of State for responding. Given the size of the contribution so far and the amount of money for which taxpayers are on the hook and given that, as she said, further contributions through the EIB or other entities could increase our contribution or exposure way beyond €250 million, it is important to tease out with the Minister of State some of the possibilities...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: The question in terms of the substantial financial assistance being provided to Ukraine in the form of loans in the main relates to assessment. Has the Department done any assessment with regard to the risk? There is a risk. There is an assessment of the risk being done by the European Commission. The risk is huge compared with other third-party countries where there would be a normal...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Yes.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I absolutely agree with the Minister of State in her latter points but I will go back to my original question. The legislation has got a guarantee which could be called upon which is to the tune of hundreds of millions of euro. Has the Department carried out its own assessment in relation to the risk of this guarantee being called upon? It is a fair question.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Is there a risk assessment in relation to this legislation in terms of the likely or potential exposure to the State? Has a piece of work been done within the Department on this? That is what I want to know. If I put in an FOI request in the morning, will I get a document from the Department stating where it sees things? Will it set out that when certain things are added up, and if the...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: The definition of risk is that one is not able to say that this is exactly what will happen in the future but risk assessments are supposed to weigh up the possibility. In the legislation, we know what the ultimate exposure is because it has caps built into it but that is not the risk unless we are suggesting that there will be 100% default-----

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: -----and that the European Union will not pick up any of this through its own budgeting. That would mean the cap is there. The likely risk is something very different. That is what I am trying to get at. Has the Department looked at what is the likely risk at this point in time, bearing in mind that things can change in relation to the State's exposure under this legislation?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I do not think I will get a satisfactory answer from the Minister of State in relation to this.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Let me put it like this. The Minister of State mentioned the Commission. I mentioned the Commission earlier on. The Commission carried out an assessment in relation to the risk. In 2022, on the €6 billion loans that were provided to Ukraine, the Commission recognised that there was a 70% provisioning that would have to be done. I am asking whether this country has done an...