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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The medium-term fiscal plan is over a five-year period, whereas the stability programme update was over a shorter period, one year. The medium-term plan is over a longer time period than the old publication that we would have done. The bigger difference is that they are both a reflection of different rules.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: Apologies if I was not clear enough. There were not two publications. There was just one, but that one publication contained two scenarios. There is the baseline of no tariffs and the second, which Deputy Fleming quizzed me on. We considered alternative scenarios too but we hit the question of how many would be enough. We decided to lay out one, regarding what the medium-term outcome...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The publication that we are referring to, the annual progress report, does not contain policy decisions. We will do the budget and it will form part of the medium-term fiscal plan that we are aiming to submit later in the year. The Commission will evaluate that year and the plan together. The annual progress report itself does not contain policy decisions, so the Commission has not had...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: A lot of other economies in the European Union are very open and depend heavily on exports. We do have a higher level of international investment in our economy than the norm but many of my finance minister colleagues have exactly the same concerns that we have. We are always aware of the one area of reliance and vulnerability we have, but every economy has an area of risk and a reliance...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: In the previous Dáil, much of the Opposition voted against the so-called rainy day fund and setting up the two funds we now have in place. We can see their value now. How we avoid depending on one-off receipts to fund current spending is by running budget surpluses. For the past two years, the Minister, Deputy Chambers, and I have overseen a number of budgets with a surplus of more...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The issue I always look at is growth of Government expenditure in comparison with the taxes we collect. It is a valuable barometer. In recent years, the rate of Government expenditure has been a bit ahead of the increase in taxes collected but we have rapidly increased capital investment in the same period. Capital investment has gone up from approximately €4 billion per year in...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: We have to think about how to support employers in a different way. The past number of years have been characterised by different schemes and one-off support measures. It is not sustainable to continue with that approach. I have never met an employer who set up a business because he or she was in it to maximise access to a scheme. People who set up a company, trade and employ people want...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I am sure he will be delighted to hear that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I accept it can be a difficult argument to make but it is important. The reason cost-of-living measures are not merited in the way we had them in the past is that, even though I accept that many people still find it hard to get by, inflation - the rate of price growth - is a fraction of what it was in recent years. When the Minister, Deputy Chambers, and I brought in the various measures in...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The Deputy refers to interest. What is that?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The Deputy is saying that if we had, for example, saved that money and not had to invest it in the banks, we could have got a rate of return on it and we have lost that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I see. I just wanted to make sure I understood the question. It is quite an achievement to have recouped all the money that we put into the banks. It was terrible to be in a position where that money needed to be put in in the first place. I can well understand the difficulty of that decision but, of course, there are all the costs that imposed on our society as well. The reason we...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: We will continue to monitor where we are with regard to how economic conditions evolve. The Minister, Deputy Chambers, and I are very much aware of the impact this can have on households and businesses. If there was ever a moment to have the public finances in surplus or good health, it has been in recent years. If we were facing into all of this while borrowing, I would be very concerned...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy and look forward to engaging with him in this committee in the years ahead. The number one contingency plan is running budget surpluses and putting those budget surpluses into the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund. That is the main fiscal budgetary insurance policy that we have and the most effective one: to run budget surpluses and...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I will get the ball rolling on that. Eoghan Murphy's book is really important for lots of different reasons, which I will not go into because I will take up the Deputy's time. I will deal with the policy issue the Deputy raised. This Government is certainly aware of the high importance of investment in infrastructure in coming years and the need to get that right in an integrated way...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I will come in briefly. A member of my team here, Mr. McCarthy, has an important external engagement. I am very happy to stay, but is it okay if he steps out at this point?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: The Deputy is undoing his fine comment from earlier on now.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: I want to give that context to the question, because it is important.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: It is being monitored at the moment. From a national perspective we will assess where we are with the impact of those developments in the preparation of the budget. In a normal year we would have the opportunity to look at this when we publish the annual progress report and when we do the budget in October. They are the two most likely points at which we would still do it. The opportunity...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Annual Progress Report 2025: Discussion (24 Jun 2025)

Paschal Donohoe: -----the Social Democrats criticise it.

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