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Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: It will really be 12 years because it will be the ten years of the two census cycles plus the two years it is going to take to publish the final results. That is why it is currently 2024, given there is an assumption it will take two years. What the Minister of State is really saying with his amendments, therefore, is that there will be a review every 12 years. Is that not correct?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: The Minister of State is saying it will be every ten years, but he is also saying it will relate to the publication of the final report. We will get the final report of the 2022 census this year, so it invariably takes two years between the date of the census and the publication of the final report. That really means it will be ten years plus however long it takes the final report to be...

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: I understand that-----

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: I will come to the argument in a moment as to why I think this is the wrong way of doing it, but before I criticise it I want to make sure I understand it, because I am not yet clear. In reality, the import of the Government amendment to the section is that it will be every 12 years, if it takes two years to produce the final report of the second census. Is that not correct?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: I appreciate that but there is a logic to where I am going with this. The problem is that if that is the upper limit, that is the worst case scenario. There is a reason I am pursuing this line of argument.

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: No. My understanding is the review will be carried out after every second census, that is, every ten years, but it will not be immediately after the conducting of the census. The Government amendment refers to the publication of the final results of the second occurrence of the census. That means there will be the ten years for the two census cycles and the CSO will then produce the data,...

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Exactly. That is my point. The Minister of State is saying that if it takes the CSO two years to produce its final report, that will add two years to the ten, whereas if it gets it done within six months, that will add six months. Is that not correct?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Why are we making it such a long period? I fully understand it is a strategic plan and we cannot chop and change every two years. Nevertheless, if we look at what happened demographically between 2016 and 2022, there were significant levels of increased economic growth, which have led to return migration of Irish folks beyond what was predicted in 2016. We have an increase in inward...

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: That would be at the discretion of the Minister and the Government of the day.

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: The current NPF is going to be reviewed within one census cycle from 2016 to 2022 and we will do it in 2024 when we have the final data. Why does this happen in every second occurrence of the census and why not every first, that is every census?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: That would make sense if one’s census and NPF review were perfectly aligned but the problem is that they are not.

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: So we will have an NPF review in 2024 as per the existing legislation. That will be a ten-year plan until 2034. There will be a census then in 2026, but it will be the following census-----

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Will it be that census or the following census which will trigger the review under this provision of the revised NPF? Will it not be the next one?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Sure, but the Minister of State is putting in a provision that makes the general rule of thumb to be within the second occurrence of the census during the lifetime of the plan.

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: On the ten-year plans, will the Minister of State do a review in 2024?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: That is the first occurrence and not the second occurrence within that review period, or it is the second occurrence within the current NPF? Which is it?

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Sure, I get that. Again, I just ask this for clarity and it could be that I am confused. Within the current NPF, 2018 was approved, the first occurrence of the census was in 2022 so the second occurrence of the census is in 2027. That would obviously trigger then a review but that is obviously going to be the next NPF, which is the one from 2030 onwards.

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Okay. One then gets a new NPF, the second one from 2030 onwards but it would not be the 2032 census but it would be the 2037 census then which would trigger the review under this provision of the second NPF. Is that correct? That just seems like a very long interval and, sure, anybody can do a review at any stage, but the Minister of State has an explicit provision in the Bill requiring a...

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: Surely the better option would have been this one, which is to automatically trigger, every time there is a census and as quick as the data is available, a review at least of the elements of the NPF which are underpinned by the census, in case there is some dramatic shift.

Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: Planning and Development Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) (28 Feb 2024)

Eoin Ó Broin: A review would throw that up. If one had a requirement to have such a review after every census, it could be a quick review to say that there has been virtually no change and that we can move on. My worry is that even though the Chair is right in that there is nothing stopping somebody doing a review, if we link it explicitly to the second occurrence of the census, that is more than likely...

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