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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: In 2021 the mid-term expenditure report outlined the mid-term expenditure strategy. Is that not the case? That report outlined that ELS would be calculated as 3% of current core expenditure. Is that not the case?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: And this year?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: It is 2.3%.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I am not asking about new budget measures. I am asking about the ELS. There was a rule of thumb in the Department-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: We will pick this up after the vote. There was a rule of thumb that ELS, as a percentage of core expenditure, would be around 3%. It dropped significantly this year in budget 2024; it is 2.3% of current core expenditure.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: And below what the strategy pointed out, which was that 3% is required. Some have argued that is even too low.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Have we reached that level in the past two years?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: The witnesses were saying that the difference between what they outlined in the summer economic statement, which was half a billion euro more in ELS, was because they go into negotiations with the Department. They find out - voilà - they got their figures wrong, are half a million better off, and the Minister has half a billion euro for new measures. It is because of negotiations.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Does Mr. Kinnane accept that the Department has, every year for the past three years, got the figure of the ELS dramatically and spectacularly wrong in the documents it is publishing, which are not just for the benefit of this House but also as part of the European budgetary cycle.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Mr. Kinnane does not accept it. The ELS in 2022 was what, €3.2 billion? It went down then to €2 billion as part of the mid-year expenditure report and then the expenditure report went to €1.5 billion in the budget. That is some drop, is it not?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Will Mr. Kinnane give it to me as a figure in billions? This is from the summer economic statement-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: The ELS allocation for 2022 to 2024, which was done by an independent body here in the Parliamentary Budget Office, PBO, set out in the summer economic statement that it was just over €3 billion in 2022. Is that correct?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Yes. Page 2.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: Yes. ELS allocation 2022 to 2024.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: It is €3 billion when you include core expenditure but if we take that out of it we have €2.3 billion. Then on budget day, it drops by how much?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: €500 million. That is way off the mark. Mr. Kinnane may not think that getting these figures wrong by half a billion euro or about 20% of a reduction is insignificant. It it is significant but the problem is that this trend continues. The same happened in 2023 and in 2024. The Department is presenting fictional figures to the Oireachtas in the summer economic statement, or the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: I appreciate that but I want to take Mr. Kinnane to the health side because that is the one I really want to focus in on, if that is okay. €708 million is the allocation that the Minister determined was required for standstill in health. The Department of Health, the HSE, says that is not credible and that it is a work of fiction. It is arguing that it is approximately €2...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: What is the number for next year? I want the component parts of the €708 million which the Department has provided for health.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: We understand the two increases this year.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Existing Levels of Service Costs: Discussion (15 Nov 2023)

Pearse Doherty: What is that in millions? Mr. Kinnane is able to give me the figure to the number - €384 million - for 2023, which the Department negotiated last year. How much of the carryover is assigned to pay and comes out of the €708 million for next year?

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