Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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58. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the projected expenditure on capital projects for 2025 and 2026 in terms of GNI*; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17726/24]

Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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I thank the Minister for his reply to Question No. 57. I am very interested to see whether what he outlined can be done. We have to do everything we possibly can to increase the number of houses being built and to meet even the low targets that are already there.

I raised the underspend on capital investments since 2021 up to this year. I will now focus on the projected underspend over the next two years. This year, the Minister outlined plans to increase funding by €2.25 billion over three years. What will that mean for the level of investment each year from 2024 to 2026 in terms of GNI* over those three years?

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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The Deputy asked me about 2025 and 2026. For 2025, at €14.35 billion, the spend will be 4.5% of GNI* and for 2026, with an allocation of €15.45 billion, it will be 4.6% of GNI*. Those are the figures. In fairness to the Deputy, she raised this issue at the very start of questions to me but the answers were under Question No. 58. That is what the figures are.

Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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That is concerning. It comes back to the levels of inflation we have seen. The Minister is saying the Government will continue its capital expenditure, but the answer indicates that will fall short of the level of ambition outlined in the national development plan in 2021. Even with the increase of €2.25 billion over three years that has finally been announced, the underspend will reach approximately €11 billion by the end of 2026. The stability programme update, SPU, was published today, so that figure might have to be adjusted. An additional €250 million was allocated in 2024. Even with the additional funding, the capital budget for this year is still €2.4 billion short.

Will the Minister confirm, on the current projections, that the Government will not meet the 5% of GNI* target this year for the fourth consecutive year? Will he also confirm that it will not reach the 5% target next year? I think he has said already that the Government will not reach it.

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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Yes, I answered that. We set a target of 5%. We are getting towards that target. We are making progress towards the delivery of it. I will go back to the point I made at the start of my exchange with the Deputy. Looking at the increases in capital expenditure year upon year upon year, between this year and next year there will be an increased spend of €1.2 billion. Capital expenditure for next year will go up by 9.7% versus the previous year. That is three to four times the rate of inflation.

The question for all political parties as we consider the next Dáil, and even as we consider the approaching budget, is whether we believe there should be an overall figure by which the rate of total Government expenditure should grow. I believe there should be an overall figure. In the absence of that figure, we run the risk of spending money we may not have in the future. If we accept the premise of that figure, and if we are to spend more on current expenditure, which we are at present, it means we need to spend a little less on capital expenditure.

Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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The concern I have, which I referred to, is that projects throughout the State are either being delayed or quietly shelved. Communities that have campaigned and waited for years are being left in the dark wondering why projects they thought were agreed and progressing are now not progressing. The only possible conclusion they can come to is that we have not accounted for inflation. People involved in numerous projects across County Mayo, for example, Castlebar Educate Together, Ballinrobe school and several other schools, thought the deals were done and dusted, but now those projects are being delayed or people are not being given the projects they were promised. The Minister, Deputy Foley, visited Castlebar Educate Together in September 2022 and promised the kids there the school was going to be delivered. All these months later, they are still waiting for a situation whereby a site has even been agreed, despite the fact possible sites were displayed. Things are just not adding up for people in communities. That is a problem.

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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I appreciate that. I am not familiar with the detail on the schools the Deputy referenced. I do not want to do them a disservice. However, no matter how much more money is available to the Government or how much it decides to spend, there will always be a higher demand than there is money available to meet that demand. That will always be the case. Anywhere any Minister goes, there is a demand and need for more schools and Garda stations to be built, and for more investment in our health services. By making additional money available to the Department of Education, which we have over the past two years, we are able to allow more school projects to move ahead. That happened last year and will happen again this year. I will continue to work with the Minister, Deputy Foley, to try to make enough funding available to ensure very important projects move ahead.

I emphasise what I said to the Deputy a number of times this evening: capital expenditure year after year after year has gone up and up and up. It has gone up exponentially versus where we were in 2017.