Norma Foley (Kerry, Fianna Fail)

Improving access to quality and affordable early learning and childcare is a key priority of the Government. Overall, early learning and childcare capacity is increasing. Data from the annual early years sector profile in 2024 shows the estimated number of enrolments has increased by 19% in the previous two years. However, it appears that demand for early learning and childcare remains higher than available supply in certain parts of the country, particularly for younger children.

The development of the forward planning model is currently under way using the expertise of statisticians on secondment from the Central Statistics Office and other specialists. The model seeks to identify the nature and volume of different types of early learning and childcare places across the country and how that aligns with the numbers of children in the corresponding age cohorts at local level. An extensive data analysis and cleaning exercise is currently being undertaken to map available publicly subsidised supply. This involves combining data from multiple administrative sources, including child population data, using GIS mapping tools.

The analysis of the forward planning model will provide a key input into the approach to the capital programme to be resourced through the allocation in the revised national development plan for 2026 to 2030. It will be one of a number of factors considered when selecting and prioritising projects. Other factors will reflect the policy goals of the Department to support a high quality, inclusive and accessible early learning and childcare system and to ensure value for money.

The forward planning model is being designed primarily as a tool for internal analysis. The maps and data the model will produce will contain projected categories of data and will therefore not be made generally available in full. As the model is further developed along with accompanying policy work related to supply, aggregated statistics, including statistics broken down by geographical area, may be made available if this is deemed compliant with data protection obligations. Preparatory work for this programme of capital investment is under way and the programme is planned to commence in line with the revised NDP allocation from 2026 onwards. As such, no decisions on prioritisation or targeting of certain geographic areas have been made yet.

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