Gerald Nash (Louth, Labour)

In less than a fortnight the budget will be announced. There is growing concern among commentators and experts that we are in a situation where spending is out of control and frankly, they are right. There is a certain faint whiff of 2008 around the place. The budgetary oversight committee has heard warnings from the ESRI, IFAC, the Central Bank and me that we cannot keep spending and cutting taxes and expect good outcomes. We have a Government that has no net spending rule. We had a medium-term framework published two weeks ago that had no spending ceilings, a threadbare national development plan published in the summer, and an opaque summer economic statement. We have no transparent way of accounting for existing levels of service. We have budgets that are, quite frankly, works of fiction, as Ministers trot into the Dáil at the end of every year looking for billions more to account for overruns. What is more, the budget process this year is cloaked in secrecy. When we ask questions in the Dáil and, as we did last night, at the budgetary oversight committee, about it we get no substantive answers whatsoever on clear spending plans. It is, frankly, unprecedented. A very serious credibility gap has emerged.

The summer economic statement is predicated on a €2 billion increase in capital spending next year, from €17.1 billion to €19.1 billion. As the Minister knows, the capital ceiling at present is about €15.8 billion, as per the August Exchequer returns. That leaves a further €1.3 billion in capital spending that must be spent before the end of the year. A Revised Estimate for the Department of Housing was tabled last night and included around €600 million in extra spending but we have absolutely no detail whatsoever on where that money is going. No updated departmental Vote group ceilings have been published and that is not good enough.

This morning the ESRI warned about overheating. Corporation tax is this Government's new stamp duty and is being used to fund more spending, with no tax increases on wealth or assets to pay for it. These windfall taxes are to this Government what stamp duty was to Charlie McCreevy and Brian Cowen. Rather than broaden the tax base to make it ready for the future, it looks like the Government will keep hollowing it out. The door is wide open for a massive VAT cut for hospitality but yesterday's National Competitiveness and Productivity Council report showed that there has been a net expansion in the number of firms in the sector, as well as in employment and earnings, in recent years. We have had no evidence from the Government on the need for a VAT cut. The case, in truth, is thin. There is little evidence supporting the case but instead of widening the tax base, this Government is proceeding to do the opposite: to hollow it out despite all of the warnings.

Why is this year's budget process cloaked in secrecy? Why do we not have real budget transparency? Will the Minister publish the existing levels of service figures for 2026 and clarify what exactly is available for new current spending next year? What actual evidence does this Government have to support the case for a VAT cut for the hospitality sector? Will the Minister ensure that budget 2026 broadens the tax base rather than hollows it out?

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