Micheál Martin (Cork South-Central, Fianna Fail)

I thank all the Deputies for raising a range of questions.

Deputy Bacik first raised the issue of tariffs and Deputy Lawless concluded on that. Fundamentally, a 30% tariff is untenable and unsustainable. It would have to be met with a very strong European Union response if it were to be maintained. That would have the effect of creating a reaction in the markets, in my view, and would in itself create an utter economic crisis because Europe and the US have the biggest trading relationship in the world. We therefore hope we can get to a negotiated settlement and a solution here. That has been the mindset of the European Union from day one. There is no question about the impact of this; there will be impacts. The Economic and Social Research Institute did a number of analyses of different tariff levels, particularly a 10% tariff, for example, and what the impact would be. It predicted a decline in economic growth and an ease in employment creation. At 10%, we would not create as many jobs as we have been creating in recent years. If it were 30%, we would be talking about huge economic decline, job cuts or job reductions in the private sector and so on - if that were to come to pass. The situation is very serious; no one is trying to hide that. The European Union does not want tariffs and has not sought tariffs.

We have a number of events coming up. We have the summer economic statement to be published. That outlines the broad expenditure proposals. We have the budget itself. We have the completion of the national development plan. All those are predicated on the Department of Finance finance projections in terms of revenue and so on.

Tariffs could potentially impact tax revenue, employment and sectors in our economy that are very strong, such as pharmaceutical and medtech. Therefore, we have to keep this under review. There is no certainty here; it is a situation of uncertainty. There was a surge of exports prior to the arrival of tariffs at the beginning of the year. That might impact beneficially on the surplus at the end of this year. We do not know; we have to wait and see. That does not mean that will be replicated next year or the year after. Under the European Union medium-term fiscal framework, we have to present a five-year plan to Brussels. The context could not be more uncertain given what is happening.

Deputy Shane Moynihan raised Sudan. I am glad he did and it is welcome because very few people are speaking about the atrocities in Sudan and the level of killing and destruction of the civilian population in Sudan and the enormous displacement of people. It is absolutely horrendous and shocking and goes to the heart of the very destructive inhumanity of warfare. Ireland has raised this at all multilateral forums, at the European Union and at the UN, and we have advocated for stronger sanctions, also on some neighbouring countries which are fuelling this because of their own vested and geopolitical interests. The result is millions of civilians losing out in terms of their fundamental human rights and the basic necessities of life in terms of a home and so forth.

Deputy Ó Cearúil also raised the EU tariffs. I outlined where we are there. I hope, and this is the view in Europe, that the setting of the 1 August deadline presents an opportunity for dialogue, although Europe is conscious of the impacts of all this because Europe thought it had a deal days before last weekend. There was, more or less, an outline agreement in principle which Europe thought had been arrived at and then suddenly this 30% came onto the table. That does not augur well. We have to prepare for all eventualities. We will keep people informed.

Deputy Coppinger raised issues of human rights. Ireland raises human rights abuses and breaches at all multilateral forums and bilaterally with nations and we will continue to do that. On issues within the US, we will look at those and take assessments from various bodies and so on that can comment on those.

In response to Deputy Ó Murchú, Ireland has been, without question, among the foremost countries highlighting the appalling impact of the war in Gaza on Palestinians and also the terrible, shocking terrorist behaviour of settlers in the West Bank. We were one of the first, along with Slovenia, Spain and Norway, to recognise the Palestinian State and we have also pushed for suspension of the EU-Israel trade agreement. A menu has come on the table today from the High Representative of certain aspects we can progress but the problem is that will require support from other European Union countries and it is not yet clear whether that could achieve a qualified voting majority. If, for example, we looked at the Horizon Europe programme in terms of seeking to put pressure on Israel and not facilitate its use of the Horizon programme, would that get the requisite support? That is something we are working on and we are engaging with other like-minded countries, as we have done, with the EU-Israel association agreement. We did it with Spain alone and then with eight other countries some weeks ago. We have also asked the European Union to ask itself whether it is in conformity with the International Court of Justice judgment and opinion.

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