Seán Crowe (Dublin South West, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

There is no doubt that foreign direct investment has been good to Ireland. The pharmaceutical and medical technology sector in particular has been an enormous boon to the economy. This has been supplemented in recent years by the tech sector. High-paying jobs and exports allowed Ireland to progress beyond our small island and become a global economy. The reports overnight that the pharma industry is next in the firing line could spell disaster not only for the economy but for those in treatment here, across Europe and in the US. We could see drugs becoming inaccessible through increased costs, shortages or indeed supply lines being disrupted.

The Irish economy is particularly vulnerable to a tariff war due to its deep reliance on international trade and its unique economic structure, with its heavy reliance on large American multinationals that use us as a springboard into the European Union. A tariff war between the major economic blocs of the US and the EU will disrupt these trade flows, reduce competitiveness and lead to job losses in sectors dominated by foreign direct investment. Ireland's openness to trade, reliance on foreign firms and the integration into global supply chains make it particularly sensitive to the economic shocks caused by tariff wars. Ireland is one small part of the EU and, as the Union moves towards federalism, it has put smaller member states further out on the periphery. Any tariff war that escalates into a broader slowdown in global trade would likely hurt Irish GDP growth. Ireland's economic performance is closely tied to global demand, especially in the EU and US markets. Investor sentiment, exchange rate volatility and reduced business confidence in such a scenario could also lead to capital flight or reduced investment.

What we are seeing play out now is the weaponisation of tariffs on a scale never seen before. The damage to Ireland could be catastrophic. Investor flight is one of the key motivations of President Trump's drive for tariffs. The fiction is that the US companies in Ireland are somehow a theft and that squeezing those companies through tariffs might bring them back to the United States. Trumpism is a regressive, destructive force that seeks only instant gratification at the expense of long-term goals and relationships. This level of brinksmanship serves only to enrich a tiny minority of Trump-supporting billionaires at the expense of millions of workers around the world. Those with pension funds will look on in horror as the stock markets flounder and panic.

The danger now is that we kowtow to these threats and bully-boy tactics by giving the US unlimited access to our markets at the expense of domestic industries. Irish agriculture in particular could suffer enormously if we open the floodgates to American producers, particularly when combined with the looming impact of Mercosur and its bleak outlook for the Irish farmer. This is not the time for rash actions. Trade deals that massively impact on Irish agriculture and elements of the Irish economy, or the establishment of the very worrying investor courts, must not be rushed into as a response to these threats.

Successive Governments have used American multinational money like a money tree that would never stop. They built up an over-reliance on corporation tax receipts from a small number of companies while narrowing the tax base through populist income tax cuts. We should be feeding direct strategic investment into domestic industries to reduce dependency on volatile global trade dynamics.

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These foreign companies should be seen as a bonus not as the foundation of our economy. It is shortsighted and those of us who have said so were deemed doomsayers or accused of not wearing the green jersey.

These tariffs may be a temporary obstacle or they could be the first shot in a global trade war. The fundamental issue remains the same, however. Ireland is vulnerable and will remain so until we take steps to diversify our economy. Any failure to do so means that any trade disruption affecting all sectors, whether through tariffs, regulations or other barriers, will always be a risk of disproportionately impacting the overall economy.

Should a global trade war ensue, there must be a support scheme ready to be implemented in order to protect thousands of jobs and families. Trips to Washington are all well and good but it has to become clear that the White House has become a law unto itself and the relationship with Irish America is not the safeguard it has been in the past. In the short term, we must look to safeguard jobs and livelihoods and our all-island economy. In the long term, we have to look beyond corporation tax receipts from a small number of companies as the bedrock of our economic growth.

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