Thomas Gould (Cork North Central, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

The draft national risk assessment expects inflation to remain elevated and anticipates a very gradual easing of inflation rates over the course of 2023. It then uses the energy-linked inflation to warn against a wage-price spiral emerging as the economy approaches full employment. This is a limited argument that ignores the fact early warnings of a wage-price spiral have not materialised, with average earnings growth falling below the rate of inflation. This is even more pronounced when multinational sector wages are excluded.

We know from research funded by the Low Pay Commission and undertaken by researchers at UCD that of the 420,000 low-paid workers in Ireland, one in five is over 50. ESRI research tells us that home ownership for 25- to 35-year-olds has collapsed over the last 20 years under Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael Governments. The same research finds that future retirees are to have a substantially lower rate of home ownership than currently exists, with the consequence that as more people retire, homelessness will increase because, in the past, older people would have owned their own homes. This is a catastrophe that is coming down the road.

As we remain in a cost-of-living crisis and a deeply entrenched housing crisis, low and medium income workers are not and will not be the cause of a wage-price spiral. The data tell us where the problem lies. It lies squarely with bad policy and bad decision-making by successive Governments. Will this analysis be reflected in the national risk assessment?

See this speech in context