Simon Harris (Wicklow, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank Deputy Conway-Walsh for this question. The 2022 Revised Estimates provided for expenditure, as the Deputy said, of €765 million from the National Training Fund. While these amounts have been allocated to the various beneficiaries, the final actual expenditure for 2022 is not known as yet because we have not reached year end. The final allocation for the NTF in 2023 will be set out in the Revised Estimates. Any increase in NTF expenditure, all other things being equal and without a corresponding reduction on the Vote, requires an increase in my Department and overall Government expenditure ceilings. NTF expenditure increases general Government expenditure and can only be accommodated within the fiscal strategy agreed by Government.

Budget 2023 has allocated €682.5 million for the NTF, as the Deputy correctly said. The net difference between the 2022 and 2023 allocations is €82.5 million. This is due to the removal of the temporary funding provided in 2022 for Covid, the Brexit adjustment reserve and the national recovery and resilience plan, which amounted to €131.4 million in 2021, with the provision of €48.5 million in the 2023 allocation for Covid and Brexit measures, as well as an increase of €400,000 in the NTF baseline for access to apprenticeship initiatives. I know I have presented many figures, but it is important to put them on the record.

When finalising the Revised Estimates for 2023, further expenditure may be identified and categorised under the NTF. The final amount is a matter for Revenue in the coming weeks. The cumulative surplus for the NTF at end 2021 was €1.102 billion. The projected annual surplus for 2022 as set out in the Revised Estimates for 2022 was €88.7 million but it is likely to be higher when all receipts and expenditure fall due.

The forecast for the annual surplus in 2023 will be reviewed in finalising the Revised Estimates taking account of all allocated expenditure and income projections. The forecast annual surplus for 2023 was calculated on a preliminary basis as part of budget 2023 as €338.4 million. While a prudent level of reserve is imperative to guard against uncertainties the current level of the surplus evidently exceeds what may conceivably be required for any potential rainy day.

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