Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

We need to assess these reports and do a little more analysis of them. The Oxfam report claims that the wealth of Ireland's nine billionaires has increased by €18 billion to €49 billion since the start of the pandemic. The report admits that as Oxfam does not have data on individual wealth holdings, it makes estimates. It starts by making estimates of aggregate wealth based on measures like GDP, stock market values and national savings. These measures are very unlikely to produce reliable figures on wealth for Ireland. GDP is not a reliable indicator of income let alone wealth in Ireland. Neither is the price of, say, Ryanair stock, listed on the Irish stock market. Oxfam would then assume that the wealth is distributed in a particular way across the population. That is simply an assumption as it does not have comprehensive data on wealth distribution. Using this approach, for example, Oxfam claims that 18,350 people in Ireland worth $5 million and above. It concludes that a flat 1.5% wealth tax on this cohort of wealth, above $5 million, would raise €4 billion. I am not sure if we can have any confidence in that figure, to be honest.

I point to an analysis of wealth taken by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, in 2016 which found that if the French wealth tax system was replicated in Ireland, the yield would only be €22 million.

See this speech in context