Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

It has been some time since I have given my views on Covid and I welcome the opportunity to share some of my thinking with the House today. As we all know, the Government faces a difficult decision in the week ahead. As we approach the end of six weeks of level 5 restrictions, we sail between Scylla and Charybdis in trying to set the right course. In doing so, we know for certain that increased human interaction will result in more people getting infected, thus increasing the chances of a third wave. 2020 has been a write-off for many families and many businesses and for young and old alike. For others, it has been a year of grief, with 3,000 lives lost across Ireland. We should never forget those who grieve and I extend my condolences to them once more.

While we have not done everything right as a Government or as a society, I believe we have managed the pandemic well compared with our peers. We acted quickly in our response. Today, the 14-day incidence of the virus is the third lowest in Europe. Even though we use the widest measure to count deaths, recording even suspected cases, we rank 34th in the world, and falling, in terms of mortality. It is clear now that the second wave has been very different from the first. While the number of cases detected has been many times greater, the numbers of hospitalisations, patients requiring admission to an ICU and deaths, fortunately, have been much lower. Indeed, there is no evidence yet of any statistically significant increase in excess deaths in the second wave in Ireland. Of course, had we not acted as we did, this would almost certainly not have been the case and we would have experienced high levels of excess deaths such as are now being seen in other parts of Europe.

There are many reasons the second wave was not as serious as the first. These include more testing, a younger cohort of people getting infected, the older and infirm being better protected and better knowledge of how to treat the disease. Those trends are likely to continue. The fact that the second wave was so different from the first is significant and should guide us in how we go forward. First of all, it is clear that there should not be an overemphasis on case numbers, particularly daily case numbers.

Cases translate into hospitalisations and deaths, but not at rates previously projected. Once again, our health service never came close to being overwhelmed. It also seems there is a seasonal component to SARS-CoV-2, just as there is for other coronaviruses. This is bad news for now but good news for the spring, when it comes.

Level 3 was probably more effective that we thought at the time. Level 5 was not as effective as was modelled, but was needed to get the numbers down lower. It is worth noting that the objective set out by Government five weeks ago was the R number consistently below one and cases and hospitalisations falling, rather than NPHET's model-based target of an R number of less than 0.5 and cases of less than 100. Trajectory is also important and the situation can deteriorate rapidly and return to exponential growth. While we know much more about the virus, it is just as contagious and transmissible as it was previously.

I believe we should seek to ease restrictions next week but not so much that it requires it to return to level 4 or 5 for a prolonged period in the new year. A short third period of enhanced restrictions may well be necessary in January or February, but we should try to avoid it being a prolonged one.

Our strategy of suppression is perhaps best described as one of "delay and vaccinate" and I do not believe we are too far away from seeing it succeed. Safe and effective vaccines are on the way, and when we vaccinate those most at risk, such as nursing home residents and healthcare workers - approximately 200,000 people - we will change the calculus for future decision-making. It will reduce the R number, case numbers and mortality rates even as we extend the vaccine more widely to other groups, as we must, to achieve herd immunity. Antigen mass testing, notwithstanding its limitations, will have a role to play in 2021 in identifying more cases, more quickly and reducing the risk of spread.

It is well-understood that there are risks associated with international travel. This is particularly so when it comes to travel from areas of high incidence to areas of low incidence. The European traffic light system, which Government has adopted, linked to pre and post-travel testing, does not eliminate this risk but it does reduce it. We need to embrace it and enforce it.

Another real risk that we cannot ignore is North-South travel within Ireland. The incidence of the virus in Northern Ireland is a multiple of what it is in the State and so is the mortality rate. Northern Ireland is a different jurisdiction and makes its own decisions under the Good Friday Agreement. We respect that, but we would be in denial not to recognise that a less intensive approach to the virus there, since the start, has had its consequences.

Our public health authorities collect very good data on cases imported to Ireland due to international travel and even cases related to imported cases. Such data do not exist for cases linked to cross-Border travel on the island. This is a gap in our data that needs to be closed as it affects our ability to make evidence-based decisions.

As Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, my responsibility is to protect jobs, businesses and livelihoods, to create the conditions where we can safely return to work and stay at work and to give everyone with a job confidence for today, as well as hope for the future.

The Government has put in place extraordinary measures to protect incomes and keep businesses alive - the pandemic unemployment payment, PUP, restart grants, low cost loans, a commercial rates holiday, lower VAT, wage subsidies and the weekly payment for businesses that are closed and the Covid restrictions support scheme, CRSS. It is essential that these interventions should continue as necessary and should not be removed too quickly. For this reason, we have set aside €3.5 billion for 2021 in the form of an unallocated recovery fund so we can respond to the twin challenges of Brexit and Covid. While the pot is limited, and has to last the full year, we should not be afraid to deploy it.

When it comes to decisions on reopening, the Government has a particular responsibility to provide clear guidance to the public and to businesses. We also need to marshal our agencies, from the Garda, to HSE environmental health officers to Health and Safety Authority, HSA, inspectors, to improve enforcement. Last Friday, to assist, we published an updated Work Safely Protocol, which sets out the actions that need to be taken to reduce the spread of Covid-19 in the workplace.

Unfortunately, many see the debate about what to do in December as a conflict between protecting lives and protecting jobs, as if our society and our economy were in some kind of contest. This is a false dichotomy and always has been. It is as though the people who work in shops or own a small business do not also worry about their own health, and that of their family and loved ones and as if the people who are most at risk from Covid do not also yearn for the company of other people, to be able to do some shopping or to enjoy some Christmas cheer.

In an ideal world we would be able to provide certainty to businesses and to consumers, and give plenty of advance notice but, sadly, we cannot. There are, unfortunately, too many moving parts, too many factors beyond our control and too many new things to take into account every day but we will give as much notice as we can. Covid-19 behaves in unexpected ways so we have to plan for every eventuality, and make decisions based on changing evidence, new developments and new facts.

During this period of restrictions, many of us have become frustrated and downcast, annoyed by examples of people breaking the rules, and impatient for things to reopen and return to the way they were before. Too many lives have been lost. Too many lives have been put on hold for too long, especially for younger people. No one is immune from feelings of anger, resentment, fear or frustration, but we will not fight community transmission with anger, blame or finger-pointing. We will beat it with community spirit – just as we did before. As a country, even in the darkest days, we never lost hope. We have a little way to go still but we should not lose hope now.

As a Government we will do everything we can, but this will not be a normal Christmas. We will have to limit ourselves and our movements. We will have to be patient. We will have be tolerant of each other and understanding of lapses, while all the time reinforcing, renewing and resuming our efforts against Covid-19.

For centuries, people have debated the true meaning of Christmas - the original wish upon a star. At its most meaningful, it is about thinking of others and about bringing happiness to others, about hope and good news. This year will be a Christmas like no other, but it can still be a good one if we keep the faith.

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