Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent) | Oireachtas source

The problem with lockdowns is we do not know which bits work and which do not. While they do contain the spread of a virus, they also impose huge costs on communities, businesses and, most important, individuals. The costs imposed by the recent move to level 5, including a major increase in unemployment, the removal of social outlets for most of us, and the possible permanent closure of many businesses, were insisted upon by the National Public Health Emergency Team, NPHET.

Each of these measures is having a direct impact on the mental health of everyone in this country. We are all seeing this in our dealings with the public. Based on the Covid-19 wave model research developed by Dr. Philipp Hoevel and his team in UCC, and presented to the HSE last June, we will have entered our third wave of infection by February 2021 if we do not have proper systems in place. As a result, we could have another lockdown on St. Valentine's Day and our fourth lockdown over the June bank holiday weekend.

This is a stark situation and the only way to avert that happening is to do what we failed to do last summer and put in place a proper Covid-19 system with the capacity and capability to test, trace, isolate and investigate the sources of infection. The public will not accept another excuse from the HSE next February that the surge in infections could not have been predicted and that it was overwhelmed by the number of positive cases. The HSE has got fair warning and it must get this right. The public will also not accept the excuse from the Government that this is an operational matter for the HSE.

There is also an urgent need to use Irish-specific data regarding coronavirus trends and patterns to redesign the type of restrictions that should be imposed to manage and control this virus. As Dr. Paddy Mallon pointed out, we are collecting huge amounts of data from contact tracing, laboratories, hospitalisations and digital data. If academics and Government health experts work together to analyse those data, we could find a way that would enable our people to live safely alongside the virus, rather than just surviving from lockdown to lockdown.

Research into Irish Covid-19 patterns could lead to informed controls, rather than the quite blunt policies we have now. We have circumstances unique to Ireland. There is a big difference between dispersed rural populations, which make up 37% of our population, and tightly-knit urban communities. A concerted effort must be made to analyse the data we have available in the hope of preventing the need for further lockdowns. Will the Taoiseach commit this Government to act immediately and prioritise such research to help us all find solutions?

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