Cian O'Callaghan (Dublin Bay North, Social Democrats) | Oireachtas source

I back the comments on low pay by a previous Deputy. The best way to ensure economic recovery is to get money circulating in the economy by tackling low pay. When people on low pay get a pay increase it goes straight back into the local economy. It is circular. We can see from the data at the moment that people on higher incomes have a higher level of savings. Part of that is because there is less opportunity to spend with the current Covid restrictions. There is nothing more circular than tackling low pay and having that money go straight back into services and jobs.

On the very real threat of a Brexit with no trade deal, all of us in this House hope a deal is done as it is massively in the interests of Ireland, the UK and the European Union. Brexit with no trade deal is a threat to business, jobs, workers' rights, tackling low pay and tackling climate change. The biggest threat to the Irish economy in that scenario is the WTO tariffs. We could be looking at €1.5 billion being imposed in tariffs, which would have a devastating effect on the exporters of Irish goods into the UK. Some 43% of all our food exports, as the Tánaiste will know, go into the UK. In the event of those tariffs being applied, projections are that Irish food exports could drop by about a third, according to the London School of Economics. The Halle Economic Research Institute in Germany has projected 700,000 jobs potentially being lost across the European Union in the event of a Brexit with no trade deal, and some 35,000 of those jobs would be lost in Ireland, which is almost 2% of our workforce. This is very serious indeed. It means that Ireland is more exposed than almost any other EU state. The agri-food sector and dairy, in particular, would be especially affected. There is a double danger that if we had the WTO tariffs in place, we could see the UK Government deciding to devalue Sterling which would somewhat cushion them in terms of the cost of tariffs on their exports. It would be to their advantage but would have a double effect on us and our competitiveness.

I refer to the 150,000 Irish trucks that use the UK land bridge every year to export 3 million tonnes of goods to continental Europe. About 40% of Irish exports, in both value and volume terms, or €18 billion in exports, use the land bridge, which is essential for delivery of just-in-time goods to continental Europe. As it currently works, the land bridge can mean transport times of about 20 hours compared to 40 hours for goods moving by direct ferry to continental Europe. The UK Government is predicting potential two-day delays of trucks from 1 January, as the Tánaiste is aware, with queues of up to 7,000 trucks. Flow rates across the Dover-Calais strait will be heavily disrupted. At its worst, this disruption will last for the first three months initially. It is imperative that every effort is made to improve our connectivity to mainland Europe in terms of direct and fast ferry routes. It would be a mistake for us to be entirely reliant on the land bridge. Indeed, given the current breaches by the UK Government of the withdrawal agreement and international law, it would be a grave mistake for us to be entirely reliant on the commitments that have been given under the common transit convention. I welcome reports of a six-day ferry service being put in place. A frequent and fast service is required. The Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade told us last night that the Government had considered subsidies and had decided for the time being not to go forward with them. That needs to be looked at again. The Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade was saying that currently there is a lot of capacity on the ferry routes to mainland Europe but we can expect that to change quite quickly. We are now just 12 weeks away from 1 January. The time on this is running out and it is essential that the Government takes a very hands-on approach. It is concerning that there are reports that Dublin Port is not yet ready for Brexit.

Businesses in Ireland may face an extra disadvantage in exporting into the UK market in respect of state aid. If a deal is not done, UK companies will potentially benefit from state aid. That makes no sense whatsoever. If we had been talking about this a few years ago there would have been no prospect of a Tory Government pushing so heavily on state aid. In the last Parliament, it was the Corbyn leadership that was pushing for state aid, not the Tories, so it is quite a turn of events. It also makes no sense in terms of the EU state aid rules, which are there to ensure that investment is based on the principle of preventing a race to the bottom in terms of different cities and regions competing for subsidies and so forth. The state aid rules are also about transparency and avoiding cronyism.

Irish businesses and exporters could be also undercut in respect of consumer standards. The National Farmers' Union in the UK has called on the UK Government to bring in legislation to ban chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef from supermarket shelves.

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No such legislation is in place at the moment. We run the risk that come 1 January, we could not only be competing on tariffs and, potentially on state aid, we could also be competing in terms of consumer standards for exporters into the UK.

As for workers' rights and climate change, Irish businesses again could be undercut when seeking to maintain our business and exports into the UK. There have been several reports of sweatshop conditions in manufacturing in the UK at present and of workers being paid as little as £3.50 per hour and of completely lax enforcement of employment laws and minimum wage payment. The essence of the Brexiteers' project from the outset was really to attempt to gain access to European markets but to undercut in respect of workers' rights, environmental protections, consumer protections and standards.

The €5 billion in the EU emergency fund for Brexit is significant. In a worst-case scenario, however, with those potential multiple hits against Irish businesses and jobs and given that we will only get a portion of that €5 billion, there is a possibility that we will need additional support from the European Union. In the wrap-up on this, I ask the Tánaiste to address the event of a worst-case scenario with all these factors carrying in and our share of the support from the European Union not being sufficient. Will the Government push for more and has there been discussion on that scenario so far?

To conclude, we are talking about the survival of sections of our economy, which will be severely put to the test in the case of an no-trade-deal Brexit. I very much hope it does not come to that. The Government must do everything it can to actively support Irish businesses, exporters, the agri-food sector and dairy in particular, as well as the protection of Irish jobs. We need a hands-on approach in this regard, especially by directly intervening to ensure direct and fast ferry services to continental Europe. The Government should do everything it can to ensure additional capacity is put in place.

We must ensure any action by the Government or the European Union will support both the immediate hits caused by Brexit and a no-trade deal Brexit, if that happens, but also will have an eye on long-term sustainability in terms of both jobs and in tackling climate change and workers' rights. In the future, we need to make sure we maintain high standards in those areas as well as meeting these significant challenges we face.

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