James O'Connor (Cork East, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

Covid-19 restrictions were initially put in place as it was feared that the unknown nature of the virus would overload our healthcare capacity which would, in turn, cause a downward spiral in healthcare provision and increase the level of deaths. These measures were initially introduced with a short timeframe of several weeks in mind. The virus remains in our society today, but more is now known about it than when it first came to Ireland in March. According to our current knowledge, a vaccine for the virus will not be available within the next 18 months, at a minimum. Considering the rate of fatalities from Covid-19 compared with other established human illnesses and the potential long-term consequences for society, I feel that a reassessment of the objectives of how we manage the virus should be considered.

The capacity of our ICUs is a critical metric for determining the significance of the level of cases. While it is understood that it is beneficial to reduce the number of cases in general as this ultimately reduces the number of deaths, the ratio between the number of cases and deaths and our ability to impact on that ratio should be considered and the necessary investment in healthcare capacity should be prioritised by the Government to deal with that issue. If we have an adequate level of ICU provision to deal with the level of cases within society at present, then we should look to balance this against the level of restrictions throughout our society and the impact that such restrictions are having on the quality of life of our citizens.

It must also be noted that the nature of restrictions must be questioned. Under the medium-term nature of the restrictions, as compared with the short-term measures in March, people are likely to forgo social interactions and reduce their social contacts. This can be seen in the increase of uncontrolled social gatherings. A logical conclusion to draw from that, therefore, considering the balancing act required between ensuring hospital capacity is not overrun and the level of societal damage that restrictions are causing, is that a strong case can be made for reopening controlled environments such as restaurants, hotels and pubs.

Overall, clearer objectives regarding the significance of the meaning of the level of cases need to be considered alongside the potential long-term consequences of restricting part of our economy. If capital investment is required in the healthcare sector, the initial upfront cost will be mitigated by the potential savings of lost economic growth arising from maintaining a level of restrictions. Regarding damage to our economy, a 2020 report from the World Bank recognised the need to incentivise a switch to more sustainable production processes, including a move towards a great digitalisation and green investment which will enhance the productivity of our economy. There must be a recognition that the dynamic of the economy has changed and it is not sustainable to continue to support industries in their current form. A realignment of resources should be undertaken during the budget.

At the same time, we must be conscious of the economic scarring of certain sections of our society in adapting to this changing work environment. Systems must be put in place to ensure that reskilling and job reactivation schemes are put in place so that the levels of inequality within the economy do not widen, as stressed within the World Bank report. Large capital investment programmes should be pursued across several areas where the economic return on the investment will be redeemed over time. With current Irish borrowing costs at record low levels, this is an excellent opportunity to raise the capital necessary to pursue such initiatives.

Turning to the impact on young people, this must be more of a priority for the Government. The long-term development of the country is dependent upon young people buying into the institutional structures of our State. If the level of trust that our young people have in this State is diminished, that can make it harder to have a functioning institutional framework within society and to mobilise knowledge and the productive capacities of a significant sector of our society. If this issue is not addressed, it will make it far more difficult to return to the level of economic growth required to return our economy, country and society to the standards of living we enjoyed previously.

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