Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

Our thoughts are with those families who yesterday lost loved ones to this pandemic. We had a good news day on Monday when there were no such deaths. I hope that can now start to become the norm.

I believe the Taoiseach said earlier that on 5 June there might be a review of the timeline of some of the measures. Given the reduction in the levels of infection I think many people will be hoping we can move some of the dates on the opening up of restrictions. I come from working in the tourism industry. What a difference it would make to thousands if not tens of thousands of small Irish tourism businesses if we could move that opening date and, as Deputy Micheál Martin said, perhaps not have that 20 km restriction along with a change to the timelines on movement restrictions if the tourism industry had two months of domestic demand rather than just one under the current timelines. That could make the world of difference to people's livelihoods, employment and future. We hope that some of the good news we have seen in recent weeks will continue to allow the Government to make some of those decisions on 5 June.

To give further hope, if I can, I want to refer to the broad economic strategy we need to manage this crisis. Two documents produced today are particularly important in that regard. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council's publication of its fiscal assessment report is very welcome and timely. Today's publication of the European Commission's €1.85 trillion recovery plan is also very significant in terms of the economic response. Both give us a very clear sense of direction and a very clear understanding of the right economic approach.

Sometimes we give out about the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council taking the bowl of punch away when we all have various appropriate spending priorities. However, today it has been very clear in reporting that what has been done to date with interventions such as the pandemic unemployment payment, the wage subsidies and other supports has been appropriate. Critically, the report states, "While policy needs may evolve, and policies should be adjusted as appropriate to fit these needs, support should be provided on a large-scale for as long as is needed to avoid lengthening and deepening the economic crisis."

More specifically, it states:

Borrowing to support weak demand would be an appropriate countercyclical approach for the government to manage the economy. It should be temporary, targeted and conditioned on the likely state of the economy.

This is not similar to previous economic downturns when there was a structural problem with the economy where we could not borrow, such as the 1980s, or in the crash of 2008-10 when our economy was fundamentally broken because we had allowed a property bubble to build up. That is not the case here. The correct economy strategy is for us to borrow on international markets and stimulate the economy to help us get out of the economic downturn. That is what is being said across so many economic sectors.

Hopefully, as in the Central Bank's baseline scenario, the return to the economy in respect of some of the stimulus measures will see employment return in the next two to three years. That may be sufficient on its own and the best way of managing our deficit. We must plan, over a four or five-year period, not just to kick-start and stimulate the economy but to get the deficit back in line in order that we continue to enjoy the prospect of low interest rates that will allow us to borrow.

Things may be worsened by what happens with Brexit or the OECD corporate tax changes. An adjustment to manage the deficit in three years' time may be needed but we will not know until we see what happens in the next two or three years. It is likely, however, to be much smaller in scale than any of the previous crashes to which I referred. Regardless of the gap that must be closed by taxation or other measures, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, noted "Nonetheless, ambitious policies can still be achieved in areas like health, housing and climate change." The economic situation is not impossible. The analysis from bodies such as IFAC is very clear and matches what the European Union is saying today. The Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, stated:

The recovery plan turns the immense challenge we face into an opportunity, not only by supporting the recovery but also by investing in our future: the European Green Deal and digitalization will boost jobs and growth, the resilience of our societies and the health of our environment. This is Europe's moment. Our willingness to act must [be] up to the challenges we are all facing. With Next Generation EU [which is what the Commission is calling its plan] we are providing an ambitious answer.

That European green deal is the centre of its €1.85 trillion stimulus package. It is saying specifically we should invest in things such as renovating our buildings to improve building stock and tackle climate change, in renewable energy - wind and solar in particular - and the prospect of a new hydrogen economy where Ireland could be very successful as a country, and in cleaner transport and logistics. That is the best economic analysis in Europe and matches the Fiscal Advisory Council's advice that this is the time to invest in the future, a time to borrow for something that will give us a return which is social, environmental and environmental.

I acknowledge that as we progress, we will have to review matters in two or three years' time, particularly given the risks from Brexit or changes to corporate tax rules but it is not an impossible situation. We should not be overly fearful or pessimistic for our people. We have the economic plan. The direction coming from almost all the economists I have seen is that this is manageable and we can do it. Recent days have seen the good news of infection rates decreasing. If we may adjust slightly some of the timelines for opening up, we may, even during this summer, we will start to see unemployment turning around, then we will have to tackle long-term unemployment to make sure that is going the right way.

I have a question for the Taoiseach. The clear economic advice is to borrow to invest for the future and invest with a good return. I do not want to be too picky but I have a concern. The Government has announced investment by the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, ISIF, in companies that may be running into difficulty. My concern is that in future investment, we should try to use whatever resources we have in new opportunities and investment areas. I understand that ISIF has not yet received any applications.

I very much understand the political imperative in terms of trying to support companies, but I am very keen that if we are investing in ISIF funds, or any other funding that we may raise through borrowing, it would be for the new economy that is going to grow. I believe the focus must be on that sense of the future, new jobs and new prospects. That is a difficult thing to get right. I am trying to think of examples. We could, for example, in particular with Brexit, have real difficulties in our food industry. Rather than just keeping the current system in place, we could invest in a policy to improve school meals and to improve our health and well-being, as the Taoiseach stated in his comments. It would be great to make an investment to connect the farmer to the local school and to set up a new food distribution system and a new retail system that would help that level of connectivity, help Irish food producers and make something new work.

I heard a proposal yesterday from someone in the Taoiseach's party which I thought made great sense. It was that we would create work hubs in the centre of every town and village where people could do distant working. They would not have to travel all the way to work but they would not just be at home. We could have innovation hubs such as the Ludgate Hub in Skibbereen. We could start to make things happen in such digital centres. I will only touch briefly on these points as I want to leave the Taoiseach a minute or two to answer. It is clear what the strategy is. We must invest in the future.

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