Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Deputies for their questions. We have not made a new impact assessment of the withdrawal agreement agreed to last week, but there have been quite a number of impact assessments made of different hypothetical scenarios. It may be possible to look at the data and apply them to the revised withdrawal agreement. We will do so. What is fair to say is that if the withdrawal agreement is ratified, there will be no significant impact on the economy, at least until the end of the transition phase and implementation period because it is a stand still period during which the United Kingdom as a whole will effectively remain in the customs union and the Single Market. It will run until the end of 2020, but I think most people are of the view that concluding a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom and having it ratified by nearly 30 parliaments, including some regional parliaments, would be quite a challenge such that we may see the transition or implementation phase extended, as it can be under the terms of the withdrawal agreement, to the end of 2022. It is very unlikely to have any impact of significance on the economy before then. Afterwards, what will matter is the nature of the future trading and economic relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. That has to be determined.

If we get through this phase of Brexit, that is, withdrawal, the next phase will be negotiating the economic partnership, the security partnership and the free trade deal with the United Kingdom. In the joint political declaration the United Kingdom states it wants to have tariff-free, quota-free access to the European Union. We want to have tariff-free, quota-free access for our farmers and business people and agri-food sector to the United Kingdom. The European Unions responds that if that is to be the case, we must have agreed minimum standards and a level playing field when it comes to environmental protection, health and safety, workers' rights and all of those things. That has still to be determined. Brexit will go on for a very long time. When we get through the withdrawal phase, the next phase will be the future relationship, which will be just as important to Ireland ,in many ways. We will have resolved the issues in avoiding a hard border, but we will not have resolved the issues related to east-west trade. That will be the next phase of negotiations, assuming we get through this phase in the next couple of weeks or even months.

Regarding a decision on an extension, the United Kingdom has formally applied for an extension until the end of January, although the Prime Minister has indicated that he is keen to leave the European Union by the end of October. Essentially, President Tusk is ringing the various Heads of Government to ask for their views.

If there is consensus, we can do this by written procedure without having to have another meeting of the European Council. If there is not a consensus, then we will have to convene another meeting of the European Council, possibly next Monday, maybe even on Friday, to discuss whether to grant an extension to the UK, for how long and under what conditions. The Irish Government has always said that we want to avoid the risk of no-deal happening either by consequence or accident and that is the approach that will be taken to this.

Deputies will recall that the extension that was granted to Prime Minister May was what was called a flexible extension. Even though the extension was granted to October, it was possible for the UK to leave at any time before that, provided that its Parliament was able to ratify a deal. That was not done during that period. I hope that Parliament will now proceed with reasonable speed in concluding this withdrawal agreement.

On the issue of enlargement raised by Deputy Howlin, we had a very long discussion at the European Council over dinner on whether to open talks with Albania and North Macedonia on their joining the European Union. Sadly, there was not consensus, which is how we operate. A few countries took the view that they did not want - or thought it was too soon - to open talks with North Macedonia and Albania. We agreed to revisit the issue before May of next year. From Ireland's point of view, I expressed our support for opening accession talks with both Albania and North Macedonia. I believe both countries, as Deputy Howlin said, have made a lot of progress in recent years and have brought about some very significant reforms. They were given a legitimate expectation that if they did certain things, talks would begin. North Macedonia, in particular, was given a legitimate expectation that if it changed its name and settled its dispute with Greece, talks would then open. While NATO has honoured that commitment, the European Union has not. I think that is a shame and a mistake. It will potentially cause reforms to slow down. It may cause young people who are very much in favour of joining the European Union in Albania and Macedonia to lose hope. It may cause some political forces in those countries to look elsewhere, perhaps to Turkey or Iran. That is a major concern. The European Council was wrong, in my view, not to open those negotiations. It is not ruled out, and we will come back to it again before May.

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