Tommy Broughan (Dublin Bay North, Independent) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Acting Chairman for the opportunity to speak briefly in the debate on Brexit. With just 42 days to go, it is fair to say that citizens are deeply concerned about the efficacy or effectiveness of the Government's preparations, especially for a no-deal outcome. We heard from the Minister for Finance at the Committee on Budgetary Oversight yesterday that budget 2020 will be formulated on the assumption of a no-deal Brexit by the UK at the end of October. That means the threats about Brexit and its imminence are directly affecting the lives of citizens and what they will do in terms of the social protection budget and the taxation plans, among others. The Minister said the 2020 budgetary strategy is to provide countercyclical support to the economy, including what he called "timely, targeted temporary measures for the sectors most exposed". In the no-deal circumstances the Minister is forecasting there will be a deficit of the order of 0.5% to 1.5% of GDP in 2020, with a hit to revenue of up to €6 billion. They are astonishing figures however one looks at them and will clearly have a very traumatic impact on the economy and society.

The Minister outlined the actions the Government has been taking so far, namely, contingency action plans, the enhanced capacity at ports and airports and further support for customs staff. He also mentioned the budget 2019 allocations, namely, the €115 million in specific Brexit measures, including the €71 million for agriculture, €14 million for the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation and €5 million for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Yesterday, the Tánaiste told me about his plans to enhance our diplomatic staff across the island of Great Britain in the lead up to 31 October and afterwards. As we have seen with the avalanche of Irish passports being taken up by British and Irish people, our diplomatic staff and civil servants will be under tremendous pressure.

The Minister, Deputy Donohoe, also referenced the future growth loan scheme yesterday to support strategic capital. While those measures and Revenue's customs initiatives are very welcome, there is grave and growing underlying concern at the negative impacts on so many sectors of the economy. We are grateful for the briefings the Minister of State, Deputy McEntee, and the Tánaiste have provided to us but with 42 days to go there is still a nagging feeling that we may not be ready.

I will echo the comments of Deputy Pringle and others that we need the fullest possible picture. Deputy Pringle referred to EORI numbers. In a recent briefing, we heard that the vast bulk of businesses had obtained such a number but when will we have 100% compliance in that area?

The extension of time limits for the haulage and aviation sectors to 2020 in the context of licences for companies dealing with a third country is also welcome. I am aware of the additional spending of €30 million at Dublin Port and the preparations at Rosslare Harbour. Of course, it was also valuable to hear the Tánaiste's response to Deputy Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil regarding the landbridge and facilities at Calais for our trucks. However, it was disappointing to learn yesterday from the Minister, Deputy Donohoe, that most of the necessary funding to protect our economy against a no-deal Brexit will have to come from the Irish Exchequer. Commissioner Hogan has already said that whatever funding is available, many of the affected sectors will not be funded by the European Union Brexit fund, so perhaps that is something the Minister of State, Deputy McEntee, could comment on. What kind of financial support should we be expecting? We have been net contributors to the EU for the past five or six years and we have been a staunch pillar of the Union in terms of supporting the euro and supporting financial measures. While the EU support for the backstop has been welcome and valuable, we will need very significant financial support, given the kind of projections we have heard, such as a €6 billion hit to revenue, for example. To try to fill that would impose significant further austerity on a country that is trying to emerge from austerity. This is an issue on which we will be expecting a strong response from Europe.

Of course, we have also had indications of a grace period for Ireland. It was welcome that we heard reports in recent days that whatever plans Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to be trying to cook up in his - what is the word? - very excitable brain, that may include a transition period in any new withdrawal agreement that would go to 2022. Obviously, that would be welcome but we certainly will need a significant grace period and full financial support from the EU in the first year or so of the post-Brexit relationship.

A Brexit withdrawal deal which totally avoids the restoration of any type of hard border must continue to be the absolute minimum settlement which Ireland and its 26 European partners could and should accept. The Financial Timesreports that Prime Minister Johnson and his Government, at long last, seem to be proposing a common zone for agriculture and foodstuffs, maintaining the common electricity market, which we developed, and maintaining the common travel area. UK officials now seem to be reporting possible proposals on an all-island economic relationship to include customs, VAT on industry goods and some remit for the European Court of Justice. However, these slight advances, while welcome, seem to be measures to facilitate trade between Northern Ireland and the EU rather than maintaining frictionless trade between all parts of our country and the European Union. If this is the case, the British Government at long last may be inching towards agreeing a special economic zone for Northern Ireland, which will be both inside the UK in jurisdictional terms and inside the European Union in economic and other terms. There seems an emerging idea for a new withdrawal agreement, which could be agreed by Hallowe'en and could extend to the end of 2022. The worrying aspect of current proposals, however, is that goods and services not covered by this emerging proposed all-island regime would still be subject to checks, even away from the Border. We know all the dangers this could have after the traumatic 30-year war we endured in this country, which damaged our economy and our people, and ended in the deaths of so many people. Even EU officials are concluding that the task for both sides in securing an agreement with six weeks left remains daunting, as the Taoiseach has said.

Some Irish commentators, like Mr. Stephen Collins of The Irish Times, seem to believe that the Irish backstop could be used by the EU as an insuperable barrier to prevent the UK leaving the EU. Obviously, British public opinion is divided but most give respect to the achievements of the EU, especially in reconciling France and Germany and helping so many EU member states to evolve into multi-party democracies. However, the focus of the Irish Government should simply be on protecting the all-island economy and the Good Friday Agreement and preventing the recreation of a border in this country, with the support of the other 26 EU states. The Taoiseach and Tánaiste must intensify their efforts, with our 26 allies, to secure a withdrawal deal before Hallowe'en which ensures that Ireland will not be pressurised in any way to create an EU frontier on the island of Ireland or in other words, that we will not be used by the European Union to try to coerce the British people.

Deputy Durkan spoke earlier about the American federation. Europe is not a federation and it remains a confederation, with certain important economic links. Commentators like Mr. Collins and Deputy Durkan forget the opposition of many of our people to the United States of Europe concept which is now being advocated by President Macron and his followers in the European Parliament, like Mr Verhofstadt.

It is also striking that in the vast economic area of services, there is hardly a single European market in any case. The Economistmagazine, in its current edition, reports on the Single Market in detail and shows how financial services, banking, legal and medical services and other professional services generally remain nationally based in each of the 28 nations. For example, 85% of banking services in each member state are provided by national banks to local companies and there has been little effort by successive EU Commissioners to integrate professional services, which are still often dominated by local and national guild structures, such as the Law Society and the King's Inns in regard to legal education and training here. In Ireland, our constituents repeatedly ask why bank mortgage rates are so crushingly high and why the mortgage rates of Germany and Holland's banks do not apply in Ireland - in other words, why there is not a common market in regard to mortgage finance. In some ways, talking of protecting a single market in banking is largely a mirage. It is also notable that telecommunications and broadband services are also nationally based and that countries like France, Germany, Spain and Italy encourage companies to be national champions in those and many other service and manufacturing fields. In regard to the backstop, therefore, is it not the case that so many services do not require extensive Single Market protection because they have always taken place essentially in distinct national markets? Hence, despite protestations from Brussels, it should be possible to reach agreement on maintaining an all-island market in Ireland in the areas where we have a genuine common market.

Members have referred to the 52:48 vote in the UK. On the one hand, we have the extreme Brexiteers in the Tory Party and, on the other, we have the Liberal Democrats advocating opposite positions. The proposals today from Jeremy Corbyn, as reported in The Guardiannewspaper, seem very fair and reasonable. After a general election, which, hopefully, the Labour Party would win, Mr. Corbyn proposes to negotiate a withdrawal agreement based on a new customs union with the European Union, a single market in fairly close alignment, guarantees in regard to workers' rights and guarantees in regard to the environment.

People are deeply concerned that this freewheeling, Singapore-type economy that Brexiteers and people such as Mr. Johnson, Mr. Gove and Mr. Rees-Mogg seem to want will be an economy in which there will be a total race to the bottom and in which workers' and environmental rights will suffer greatly, with impacts on us across the Irish Sea. There is a need, therefore, for an agreement based on the four principles Mr. Corbyn has outlined. He intends, if he is in a position to do so, to put such an agreement to the British people alongside the option to remain. The record of the Tory and Liberal Democrat Governments since 2010 has been appalling. They came in and imposed totally unnecessary austerity on the British people. The Fianna Fáil-Green Party Government and, later, the Fine Gael-Labour Party Government did precisely the same thing. There would be an opportunity for the British people under a Corbyn-led Labour Government to come to a relationship with Europe, whether in or out of the European Union, which would also enable our economy and our country to function as heretofore and to develop in a very positive manner.

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