Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour) | Oireachtas source

Throughout the tortuous Brexit process, I have been heartened by the solidarity and support shown to Ireland by other members of the European Union. At the beginning, Brexit was potentially a challenge to the stability of the European Union itself. The economic strain of Brexit could have led to a breakdown of co-operation between some member states. It has become clear, however, that European governments and peoples are prioritising the long-term future of our Union over the short-term economic problems that virtually all member states will face in the post-Brexit situation. The EU's negotiator, Michel Barnier, and Heads of Government across Europe, have spoken eloquently and frequently about their awareness of Ireland's concerns about the backstop and the withdrawal agreement. They have insisted that a genuine solution must be at the heart of any settlement in ensuring a border-free island of Ireland.

It is also clear that if a solution to Ireland's concerns cannot be found before the UK leaves the EU, a solution will have to be found before the EU signs any future trade agreement with the British Government. It seems to be an impenetrable fact, the notion that people repeatedly talk in Britain about "getting it over with", "getting it done", as if magically, if they leave the European Union on 31 October, all of the problems vanish, no matter how many times it is pointed out that the issues remain unaddressed the next day and will be there in terms of any future trade agreement. That either has not penetrated or people have simply chosen to ignore it.

The North-South dimension of Ireland's concerns has rightly been prioritised for its impact on the outworking of the Good Friday Agreement and the disruption of people's lives and livelihoods that would be caused by any notion of anything that might approach a hard border again. As 31 October draws near, however, we also must attend to the huge economic problems that will result from the east-west dimensions of Brexit. Many colleagues have spoken about so far in this debate about Border constituencies, which obviously is of prime consideration to us. I live in a border constituency too. The border I talk about is between Ireland and Wales. My home in Wexford is closer to Wales than it is to Dublin. That is an important conduit of trade. East-west is also of great significance.

Yesterday, the Taoiseach was very coy about the level of economic analysis undertaken by the Government. He referenced some publications in response to questions I put to him which estimate that future job growth will slow by 40,000 to 50,000 jobs in future years. That is very different from the recent report by Fáilte Ireland, published earlier in September, that 10,000 existing jobs in tourism could be lost in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The slowdown in potential new jobs is a very different prospect to people in employment right now losing their jobs.

From talking to trade union officials through the summer who are at the coalface of industry, I am aware of manufacturing businesses that have already ceased overtime and have laid off temporary workers or workers on temporary contracts because of Brexit and are fearful about the future. I have said this to the Tánaiste directly before in the last week or so. Brexit is already having a jobs consequence in manufacturing. Repeatedly, even in the debate so far tonight, the obvious sectors of agrifoods and tourism have been focused upon. I am talking, however, about industrial manufacturing that has not been put in the spotlight in a way that it will be if there is a hard Brexit. The Taoiseach said yesterday that the Government does not have the equivalent of Britain's Operation Yellowhammer report analysing the economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit. It is simply not credible that the Government does not have a more detailed economic analysis showing the real potential job losses that would arise in our economy in six weeks' time. Have we not drilled down to know in exactly the same way as the British have, what the consequences would be right across every sector of our economy? This is an example of why the Labour Party believes that the Government and Fine Gael have been too passive in their impact analysis.

Every quarter, the Central Statistics Office contacts every employer with more than 50 workers, together with a selection of smaller businesses, in order to conduct the Earnings and Labour Costs Quarterly Survey which is tied in to the annual gathering of facts across our economy. A team of civil servants should already have telephoned the same range of businesses - in fact it should cover every business in the country - to ask them about their Brexit-readiness, if it is already impacting, and what they fear. Is it supply lines, export markets or currency fluctuation? We should know, enterprise by enterprise, what the impact will be. It is not too late for the Government to do just that. Is the Tanáiste indicating that the Government has done that already?

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