Catherine Murphy (Kildare North, Social Democrats) | Oireachtas source

I welcome the opportunity to speak to the summer economic statement. We were presented with black and white options for several scenarios. The one with the United Kingdom crashing out of the European Union is pretty dire, not just for next year’s but for subsequent years’ budgets. The loss of 50,000 jobs in such a scenario is conceivable. Social welfare payments and tax revenues would not just be impacted on, as it would affect the domestic economy, as well as creating a negative economic mood. There would be a cohort of people for whom it would be quite difficult to create alternative employment. Obviously, the agrifood and small and medium-sized enterprise sectors would be the most exposed. It is about using our imagination in advance to determine the best way to mitigate the worst excesses of such an event.

From today’s statement, up to €200 million will not be available. In the context of Brexit, it may seem to be a small amount of money. However, it is a sizeable amount because the Government has failed to do its job by keeping costs under control. In allowing such eye-watering cost overruns, with the flawed tendering process for the national children’s hospital and the national broadband plan – I agree that the latter needs to be revisited – the Government has essentially stripped €200 million from next year’s and subsequent years' budgets. It will also affect opportunities and underlines how the national development plan needs to be revisited. At this point, it is a work of fiction when such significant readjustments need to be made.

We must also take account of the declaration of a climate emergency. That must involve the reconfiguration of some of the projects included in the national development plan.

The debt-to-GDP ratio, when GNI* is used, means that we are in serious territory, particularly if we add €5 billion a year in borrowings for several years. There are several other dynamics, including going back to the national development plan and removing other projects because we would not have the ability to borrow.

I must question the figures included in the summer economic statement. At the Committee of Public Accounts several weeks ago we heard about a liability not included in the HSE’s accounts for 2019 but one which had been pushed forward. That liability should be shown now. Deputy Pearse Doherty referred to the Christmas social welfare bonus not being included. One wonders exactly how much space there is for vital public services. We must get serious about the cost of delivering housing. It is not happening for the common good when the cost of building land adds to the cost of housing. These issues are critically important when examining the national development plan. They are also important when future-proofing in a scenario where there will be less money available but when we will still have to provide better infrastructure, whether it be public transport, housing or facilities to provide better healthcare services, as well as dealing with threadbare services. It is not just a question of looking at the black and white on paper. There must be a dynamic piece of work to use our collective imaginations to protect ourselves to the greatest degree we can.

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