Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I hope it is now evident to everyone that the economy is performing very well again this year. We know this from the labour force survey figures released by the CSO yesterday. It shows there has been a net increase in employment of 81,000 in the past year. There are now 2.3 million people working, more than ever before. The unemployment rate has fallen below 5%, representing a 14-year low. Long-term unemployment has fallen below 2%, to 1.7%. These figures are much better than we expected. Employment is now growing at twice the rate it was this time last year. That is an extraordinary economic performance, notwithstanding the risks and headwinds we are sailing into. It shows an economy that is doing well and that is being well managed. There is no better test of a Government's economic competence than employment rates, incomes and living standards. These are all very much going in the right direction.

The improved economic figures will have an impact on the public finances. We are confident that we will, once again, record a budget surplus this year. We will, once again, be able to reduce our national debt this year and we will be able to make the first deposits to the rainy day fund, provided that the economic performance is sustained and that Brexit does not blow us off course. That is an enormous uncertainty, even still.

It is intended that, in the middle of June, the Minister for Finance, Deputy Paschal Donohoe, will make the Summer Economic Statement. That is an annual statement that has been made to the House probably for five or six years. It will set out the revised numbers and projections for growth, revenue and expenditure. It will also set out the surplus.

On my meetings with the UK Prime Minister, Mrs. May, I last spoke to her in Paris last Wednesday. She gave me a rough outline of the announcement she made yesterday in terms of a new plan to secure ratification of the withdrawal agreement. It is likely that I will meet her again in Brussels next Tuesday, when Heads of State and Heads of Government are due to meet again to discuss the outcome of the European elections. I am not sure whether she will attend but, if she is, I will certainly make sure to speak to her once again.

The OECD's economic outlook, published yesterday, highlighted in a section on Ireland the risk of a boom–bust cycle developing if it is associated with a surge in credit growth. We know that the previous boom–bust phenomenon was largely credit driven. People were investing and spending money they did not have or earn. It was money that was borrowed. That is what we need to guard against very much in the period ahead.

At present, there is no evidence of inappropriate or excessive credit growth in Ireland. On the contrary, net mortgage growth to households grew at a modest 1.4% in the year to December 2018 but we do need to guard against the risk of a return to excessive and easy credit. I note that many who predict another crash are the same individuals who call for more credit, borrowing and debt. That should be borne in mind.

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