Tommy Broughan (Dublin Bay North, Independent) | Oireachtas source

This afternoon, the Minister will give the Committee on Budgetary Oversight a briefing on the stability programme update. Last week, Dr. McQuinn and Dr. Bergin from the ESRI appeared before the committee. Their basic figures were a bit shocking. They spoke about trade shock in the three Brexit scenarios of deal, no deal and disorderly. The figures for no deal show a reduction in growth by 2.6% to 0.8% in 2020 and a reduced level of real output in the Irish economy over ten years by 2.6%. What struck us most is the impact on households. The Minister must agree the uncertainty about Brexit is already impacting on us. We are beginning to see an impact on imported goods in how prices are rising because sterling and the euro are moving towards parity. The ESRI told us the impact on the real personal disposable income of households would vary between being 2.2% lower in a deal scenario, 3.9% lower in a no deal scenario and 4.2% in a disorderly no deal scenario. Whatever way we look at it, households will be severely impacted. Is the Minister preparing to cost the type of social transfers we may need for the most vulnerable households? We have heard from the Commissioner, Mr. Hogan, of possible supports from the European Union for farmers, industry and other areas of the Irish economy. Households may be forgotten about in this. Is this something going into the general mix of how we might deal with this major crisis for our country?

See this speech in context