Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour) | Oireachtas source

The European Council is meeting tomorrow for one reason, which is to decide whether to grant a further extension of membership to the UK and, if so, for how long. As we know, the UK was meant to leave the European Union on 29 March but its Parliament was unable either to support the withdrawal agreement or to support any alternative to it. Prime Minister May sought an extension to this coming Friday, 12 April, to maximise leverage on Parliament to vote for a withdrawal agreement, but Parliament has again rejected it. It has also overwhelmingly rejected leaving the EU without a deal, however, so Prime Minister May has once again asked for an extension, on this occasion until June.

UK politics, quite simply, is stuck in a bind. Theresa May is leading a minority Administration and many people are openly speculating now that she has only weeks left of her premiership. The Conservative and Labour parties are deeply divided on the issue of Brexit, as are the British people as a whole. The British Government has agreed to prepare to hold European Parliament elections, which are due to take place across the Union between 23 and 26 May, even though British MEPs may not take up their seats. Many European leaders have expressed their frustration at this stop-start process, which is understandable. They are angry that the UK’s political chaos is interfering with normal EU business. We have many other important issues to address, such as climate change, migration and the need for decent standards for workers across the Union. There are two schools of thought on the extension. Some, like Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the ALDE liberal group, to which Fianna Fáil belongs, have cautioned that any long extension will create prolonged uncertainty in the EU. Others have gone as far as to say that the UK might interfere with the EU’s budget process or trade policy in a damaging, interfering and obstructive way. On the other hand, Council President, Donald Tusk, has taken a much softer approach with his proposal for a one-year flexible extension which would permit the UK to leave at a time during the year if it finally can get Parliament to agree to terms acceptable to the other EU partners for its departure.

In my judgment, there are two fundamentals that should inform us on whether to advocate for a long or a short extension. First, what is in Ireland’s best interest? Second, what relationship with the EU is likely to attract majority support within the UK?

It is clear that in Ireland’s national interest we must take all possible measures to avoid a no-deal scenario in which the United Kingdom will suddenly exit the European Union. As we have said during Taoiseach's Questions, this could happen by accident or by design. A no-deal Brexit would be most damaging to the economy, with some sectors being completely devastated as a result. Many thousands of jobs would be at risk in such a scenario. On that basis it seems a longer extension would be in the national interest. We also do not want to see use of the guillotine at the end of a long extension. We do not want to reach a sudden impasse. If the United Kingdom has still not made up its mind after one year, we do not want a no-deal Brexit to happen by default on a date picked from the air.

There was a strong demographic factor at work in the 2016 referendum in the United Kingdom, with older people more inclined to vote to leave and younger people much more likely to vote to remain. That is a simple fact. Judged objectively, the longer the extension the more likely it is that the majority of the British people will coalesce to remain. For all of these reasons, a long extension would seem to fit best with Ireland’s interests and the middle ground of British public opinion which appears to be shifting, as we have seen in many articles in recent days.

My proposal is that we support a long extension. I will be making this same proposal tomorrow in Brussels when I meet socialist Prime Ministers and other Labour Party leaders in advance of the European Council meeting. My judgment, on which I am interested in hearing the Taoiseach's view, is that we should offer the United Kingdom a five-year flexible extension, to last for the term of the next European Parliament and the next cycle of officers within the European Union. We should offer this to the United Kingdom without a range of preconditions or caveats on the basis that we expect it to honour its obligations as a full member, until and unless it actually comes to an agreement to leave. We have the same expectations for all member states, including those headed by far-right nationalists. We should not confuse our frustration with the UK Government with our real and enduring ability to co-operate and do business with the United Kingdom now and in the future. The five-year extension could be flexible, in identical fashion to the flexible one-year proposal made by President Donald Tusk. The United Kingdom could leave during the five-year period if it comes to an agreement on the terms of its departure. A five-year extension would also make it clear to it that we were not going to keep pandering to it on short-term issues, crisis after crisis and month after month. We are not going to keep calling special emergency summits of EU leaders and clearing the European agenda to deal with this one issue. Any new UK proposal could be dealt with at the regular quarterly European Council meetings.

I have been thinking about this matter in some detail. If we offer anything less than a five-year extension, all EU institutions and member states will be constantly looking over their shoulders to gauge the United Kingdom's current level of commitment and second-guess its suggestions in case they are designed to undermine the European Union’s best interests. We should not choose an extension based on speculation about who might be the next UK Prime Minister. We should not make decisions based on a suspicion about what he or she might or might not do. Instead, we should build on 40 years of close co-operation between Britain and the European Union. We should give the United Kingdom a long and open-ended period in which to reflect on its vision for its future in the light of the negotiations that have taken place in the past three years.

There is the notion of an arbitrary date being picked. It is speculated that President Macron suggested the end of December. Why pick a date and then have another crisis? If we get over the hump of the European elections - it is a real issue - with the United Kingdom participating as a full member, let us allow it to be a full member and offer the flexibility to enable it to think again if that is what it wants. If it does decide to leave during the five-year period, such a long extension will remove the needless rolling crisis and the constant drama we have endured for more than a year. It will allow us to build close relationships. Such an extension will help to prevent the damage to jobs and livelihoods now threatened week in and week out. If the United Kingdom does not leave during the five-year period, we should deem its Article 50 notification to have expired and its membership of the European Union to be normalised again.

Some will say the United Kingdom staying in the European Union after June will lead to a group of wreckers in the European Parliament. It is said Mr. Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party and other Eurosceptic extremists will be elected in Britain and take their seats in the European Parliament. In my judgment the United Kingdom will also send an equally strong cohort of pro-EU MEPs. The threat from the British far right is hardly greater than the threat from Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, the newly rebranded French National Front and all of the other extremists who will be standing for election in May, many of whom are likely to be elected. We need to face the far-right challenge to the next European Parliament, but let us face this threat with our British comrades and friends, rather than painting a false stereotype of modern British politics. It is a radical proposal, but in my judgment a five-year extension would give the best possible chance to those in the United Kingdom who wish to remain in the European Union to develop a stable and persuasive majority public opinion. Let us give them a real chance to succeed in that objective.

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