Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The central scenario that is forecast in budget 2019, as prepared by my Department, is the assumption that the UK will make an orderly exit. This would involve a transition period being agreed that extends or replicates existing frameworks until the end of next year. In other words, it is assumed that the UK will remain in the Single Market and customs union during this period. The baseline forecasts for 2021 onwards assume the EU and the UK will conclude some form of trade agreement. It is clear that the impact of Brexit on the economy and the public finances remains highly uncertain. The timing and nature of the UK's exit remains unclear. As more information becomes available, my Department will update and publish its assessment in the stability programme update which will be submitted to the Commission in April. Additional information will be available at the time of budget 2020, which will be introduced in October of this year. This will enable the Government to design the appropriate budgetary policy response. As I have said before, there will not be an additional budget for this year. The appropriate policy response to a disorderly Brexit, in the short term, is to allow the automatic stabilisers to provide a counter-cyclical support for our economy.

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