John Lahart (Dublin South West, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I will divide my contribution into two parts. First, I will refer to a paper that we were presented with at the Committee on Budgetary Oversight which was produced by the OECD in October last and which is still fairly prescient in terms of what kind of Brexit outcome we will face. The reason I raise it tonight is because there is a view partly out there among the public that if a hard Brexit can be avoided, that will be the end of this matter. The OECD paper clearly points out that what the OECD tried to predict is the occurrences and outfall of a worst-case scenario but that all that will happen if there is not a worst-case Brexit is that the negative impact will be lessened. The OECD is not diluting at all the fact that there will be a negative impact right across a range of areas in Ireland, many of which have been rehearsed over the past two days in the debate here and will be rehearsed again. One point that needs to come out of this preparation of emergency legislation is that there is a view that if the UK does not fall off the edge of the cliff, somehow we are all off the hook. We are far from it. In terms of businesses, it has been repeatedly stated on this side of the House that businesses are ill-prepared for what lies ahead of them, whether it is a hard or a soft Brexit.

The paper provides estimates of the potential effects on exports, imports, production, factory demand and GDP of Ireland in the event of an exit of the United Kingdom from the EU. It sets out that, owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final agreement between the negotiating parties, the choice has been made to assume a worst-case scenario where trade relations between the UK and the EU are governed by WTO rules and most favoured nation rules. In doing so, it provides something close to an upper bound estimate of the negative economic consequences and impact. It also takes into account some of the potential for some firms to relocate to Ireland and there would be some kind of up beat in that sense.

Any final trade agreement that would result in closer relationships between the UK and Ireland could reduce this negative impact. That is the line that we need to emphasise. All it could do is reduce the negative impact of a Brexit. It certainly will not obviate it. The paper goes into all the ways in which Ireland is exposed as an open economy to shocks, and curiously lists Brexit as merely one potential shock that could be waiting out there on the horizon for Ireland. In that sense, they say that a key task for Irish policymakers is to prepare for potential external disruptions that could transmit to the domestic economy, and at present clearly the most discernible one of those is Brexit.

Some of the most important points have been reinforced from time to time here in terms of the fact that the Irish and UK economies are closely and highly integrated and that the UK remains Ireland's closest trading partner. Other points include that the UK is a major source of intermediate goods for Irish firms. All of these points reinforce the first central point I want to make tonight that, as with any separation or divorce, much of what follows the act of separation or divorce is clearly contingent on how that split occurs but that is not the end of the process. It is only the beginning of the process. We need to try and convey to Irish people that, on 29 March, whatever decision is made there, whether it is to extend and to increase time for the UK's consideration of what it intends to do, or whether a decision is made then, it is only the beginning of another process.

That leads me on to the second point that I want to consider, a point that has been quite lost in the past number of months but that we will face in the next few months, whether it is at the end of March or into the summer. It relates to our two islands. It is worth trying to reflect on life beyond a soft or hard Brexit, or whatever kind of Brexit we will face, and on the manner in which our two peoples have been impacted by the decision on Brexit over the past two years.

In Ireland, we have had a united approach, as was mentioned earlier, at party political level, at public level and at parliamentary level. Our country has adopted a parliamentary approach that has facilitated a strong negotiating hand on the part of a minority Government. The Irish people understand that Brexit is not in our interests and broadly support the stance of the Government and have been faithful to it in this regard, as manifested by a recent opinion poll which suggested that, so important is the Brexit issue and its resolution to our future, 75% of the public believes that there ought not to be a general election at this time.

Parliament, too, has behaved in a generally consensual manner by and large, and my own political party has not taken advantage of Government unpopularity to precipitate an election, placing instead the stability of our politics at the centre of our approach at a time of national peril. Across the EU, we see that there are now 15 minority administrations in power. Stability is paramount, and the stability we have provided in my party at a time of national need has facilitated a Government that is 20 seats short of a majority in this House in doing its work. It is an approach that deserves substantially greater appreciation from a minority Government led by a party that, even in the midst of all of this maelstrom, continues to prepare for a general election on the same day as the European and local elections, if the media are to be believed.

Let me contrast this with our neighbours, including those on this island. They have: a Parliament in Westminster that is almost daily convulsion; two of the principal political parties in a state of constant political convulsion; Northern Ireland without an Administration for two years; Scotland which supported Remain; and Northern Ireland that supported Remain but a unionist party that supported Leave propping up a Tory Party in government.

Regardless of the outcome of the Brexit process, and perhaps there is a little glimmer of light now in terms of the political momentum gathering to prevent a no-deal Brexit, this political instability will not end the morning after any clear outcome or indication of direction on Brexit from the British Parliament or Government. England is divided by a thread in terms of Remain and Leave, and there is no discernible reason that might change in the near future. English nationalism has raised its head and found a voice that will not simply be stilled. Northern Ireland politics is stuck in a stubborn impasse where an irresistible force has met an immovable object.

The focus of this part of my contribution tonight is not on the economics of Brexit, future trade deals or the details of the withdrawal agreement. Rather, it is on the rolling consequences for the people of this island and our future relations with our neighbours. Brexit has caused damage and will continue to do so, and actions will be required to begin mending this for our future relations.

We failed to appreciate enough, and I say this as a republican, despite 800 years of turmoil between the two islands, what a strong ally the UK has been to Ireland within the EU since 1973. The EU, as one of my colleagues, the former Minister, Mr. Barry Andrews, described recently, is made up of a number of loose and tight alliances - the original six founding members, the Benelux countries; the Scandanavian-Nordics; the Franco-German axis; the Mediterranean alliance of countries; and the Baltic states — and we had a strong alliance with the UK that is now over in EU terms. What and where is our next step? With whom do we strongly attempt to ally ourselves and who do we find with interests similar to our own, where we are on the edge of the Continent? I think of the future east-west relationships between Dublin and London and between the two islands. There is now an island between us and the Continent. Our landbridge to the Continent is changing inexorably and so, while we rightly consider the range, depth and scope of emergency measures and legislation that may be required, we must at all times keep close in our mind the fact that it does not end on 29 March, three months after or in a year's time after a possible extension is sought. It is only beginning.

It is a bit like escaping from being stranded on an island; the escape from the island is very welcome but there are turbulent waters ahead. I would like to hear much more detail in future as to what preparations are being made to ensure Ireland can take advantage of what will come before it.

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