Eoghan Murphy (Dublin Bay South, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

We hope never have to use the legislation prepared for a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal scenario is in nobody's interests, yet the uncertainty around the negotiations obliges us to prepare for the worst. At a time of uncertainty, we place great value in order and stability. The preparations extend right across the Government, including to my own Department. As this House will be aware, my Department recently published the European Parliament Elections (Amendment) Bill 2019, which, when enacted, will provide for the implementation of the recommendations in the 2018 report on European Parliament constituencies in full and without change. In summary, the Bill will provide for the election of 13 MEPs in Ireland across the three recommended constituencies of Dublin, Midlands-North-West and South for the parliamentary term 2019 to 2024. The Bill will also make provision for a number of technical amendments to the European Parliament Elections Act 1997 to implement certain requirements set out in the EU Council decision of 13 July 2018, which itself aims to modernise the European Union's framework electoral law, known as the Act of 1976.

The Bill passed Second Stage in the Dáil on 6 February 2019. Committee Stage and Report Stage are now scheduled for completion in the Dáil tomorrow, after which the Bill will be progressed in the Seanad. Ireland is to gain two seats in the next term of the European Parliament following the EU Council decision of 28 June 2018. The taking up of these additional seats is premised upon the departure of the UK from the EU prior to the holding of elections to the Parliament in May of this year. Should the UK's withdrawal be deferred, only 11 of the elected 13 may take up their seats until its departure becomes legally effective. The Bill has been prepared on the basis that the UK will depart the EU on 29 March this year. However, given the uncertainty that continues to prevail regarding the timing of the its exit from the Union, I will bring forward a number of amendments on Committee Stage through the Minister of State, Deputy John Paul Phelan, which will deal with the possibility of a delayed withdrawal and the start of the 2019 to 2024 parliamentary term.

In this scenario, it is proposed that the two members who would not take up their seats until the UK's departure becomes legally effective would be the final person elected in each of the constituencies of Dublin and South. The reason for this approach is that these two constituencies are being allocated the two additional seats as recommend by the independent European Parliament constituency committee in its report of 24 September 2018. While the European Parliament Elections (Amendment) Bill 2019 is not solely related to the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, the contingency measures that are being proposed by way of Committee Stage amendments will be complementary to the provisions in this Bill and will ensure that the next elections to the European Parliament in Ireland can proceed with clarity and certainty for prospective candidates, political parties who may wish to contest those elections and the electorate.

As part of the Brexit planning efforts, preparations are being made for the necessary checks and controls at Dublin Port and Rosslare Europort to deal with the flow of goods between Britain and Ireland. This includes the development of necessary infrastructure at ports and airports to facilitate the customs, health and phytosanitary checks that will be required. In the short term, should there be a no-deal Brexit, the emergency order provisions in the Planning and Development Act 2000 will be relied on to cover the small-scale works required at Dublin Port and Rosslare Europort. These orders will be made by the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, which is appropriate in this instance, as the Office of Public Works would be undertaking the needed works. The Minister made such an order on 11 February in respect of works required at Dublin Port.

Even in the case of an orderly Brexit, it is important to remember that larger-scale permanent development will be required at the ports. I propose to advance planning-related legislation to facilitate this development. The first such instrument would amend the Planning and Development Act 2000 in order that the emergency order provisions therein would take account of environmental assessment obligations in EU law. For example, this would enable the requirements of the birds, habitats and environmental impact assessment, EIA, directives to be observed in providing larger-scale infrastructure at the ports using such emergency order provisions, if deemed necessary. A second instrument would provide for additional classes of exempted development to facilitate the provision of necessary temporary or permanent port infrastructure, which could supplement the development set out in the emergency orders, if required. These exemptions would be subject to the limitations that normally apply, including the rule providing that such exemptions do not apply when an environmental impact assessment or appropriate assessment under the relevant EU directives is required. Unlike the provisions in the omnibus Bill, this new planning-related legislation is not required in advance of a no-deal Brexit. It will be needed very soon after, however, and I intend to bring the proposals forward in April.

The construction products regulation is European Union legislation that underpins harmonised EU standards for construction products. Notified bodies in member states uphold the harmonised standards by providing assessment, conformity and certification services, including the awarding of the CE mark. From the withdrawal date, UK notified bodies will lose their status as EU notified bodies. As a result, manufacturers, importers, distributors and authorised representatives that rely on UK notified bodies need to take the necessary steps to ensure they are authorised by a notified body established in an EU member state. This means that manufacturers, importers, distributors and authorised representatives need either to arrange for a transfer of their files and the corresponding certificates from the UK notified body to an EU27 notified body, or to apply for a new certificate from an EU27 notified body. My Department is the notifying authority for construction products covered by the regulation. The Department is in the process of assessing a number of applications for the status of notified body in Ireland. Some of these are linked with organisations that are currently UK notified bodies. These organisations are establishing themselves in Ireland in the interest of becoming notified bodies here so they can continue to provide conformity assessment services to their clients in relation to construction products post Brexit.

The recognition of professional qualifications is another issue that arises in the context of Brexit, with potential impacts across various sectors, including the construction sector. In general, in the absence of an agreement and orderly Brexit after 29 March 2019, UK nationals will be considered third country nationals and UK qualifications will be considered third country qualifications with the consequential implications. The issue of recognition of professional qualifications will be dealt with by the appropriate regulatory authorities. For example, the Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland, RIAI, will liaise directly with its counterpart in the UK, the Royal Institute of British Architects, to put in place a system of mutual recognition of qualifications. Crucially, these authorities have the capacity and the legislative powers to recognise third country qualifications and can continue to use this framework to recognise UK qualifications. A similar scenario arises in respect of other key construction-related professions such as professional regulation for surveyors and engineers. It is important to note that persons who have had their professional qualifications recognised under the current EU directives can continue to practice in either jurisdiction, subject to compliance with all regulations within that profession.

In regard to the movement of labour generally, under the common travel area, Irish and British citizens move freely, reside in either jurisdiction and enjoy associated rights and entitlements, including access to employment. The CTA predates Irish and UK membership of the EU and is not dependent on it.

Detailed work is at an advanced stage to ensure that all necessary provisions are made in both jurisdictions so that the CTA continues to function effectively. The Government and the UK Government have committed to maintaining the CTA in all scenarios.

The impact of Brexit on housing demand is by no means clear or certain. According to the ESRI, the macroeconomic effects of Brexit are significant and negative for the Irish economy. Both income levels and employment are expected to be lower in a no-deal scenario. In this respect, housing demand may be lower as a result of these factors. On the other hand, Brexit could lead to an increase in the number of people moving to Ireland from the United Kingdom. This could see an increase in the number of people coming to live and work here, particularly in Dublin, which would give rise to a consequent increase in housing demand. The recently published report of the joint committee, Examining the Potential Impacts of Brexit on Ireland’s Housing Market, has made an important contribution to the debate around the implications of Brexit across the housing system, looking at some of the issues I have touched upon earlier, as well as potential demographic impacts. While the recommendations of the joint committee are welcome, great care must be taken not to misinterpret a current scenario or recent trends, both immediately prior to and after a UK withdrawal from the EU, as the likely long-term picture. It is agreed that there is a need for short-term contingency, but this should not dictate the long run to the extent that it would lead to a premature change of course.

The national planning framework, NPF, is based on long-term, mid-range demographic and econometric projections over the period to 2040. It is necessarily a long-term framework that will be subject to shorter-term fluctuations over the course of such a long timescale. The key variables for housing demand are the scale and distribution of population growth and household composition, which in turn are a factor of economic performance. Population change in Ireland is most influenced by net migration, which is highly volatile, even over very short timescales. Average net inward migration was approximately 20,000 people per annum between 1996 and 2016, but this ranged from a record high of 105,000 people in 2007 to minus 27,500 people in 2010, a swing of over 132,000 in only three years. The NPF strategy is based on average net migration of approximately 20,000 people and approximately 3% economic growth per annum to 2040.

The NPF demographic forecast accords with the findings of the CSO's expert group on population and labour force projections in 2018 on the mid-range population growth scenario, which is regarded as "most likely" in the long term. It is possible that Brexit may impact net migration to Ireland in the short term, particularly if a slowdown in the UK economy diverts a proportion of UK-based enterprises and employees, as well as EU migrants who might otherwise have migrated to the UK, to Ireland. This type of scenario is addressed by the expert group's high-range population growth scenario, which is based on average net migration of 30,000 people per annum into Ireland, every year to 2040 and beyond. While this may be sustained and exceeded in the short to medium term, it would be unprecedented over a sustained period. If a significant trend becomes apparent that is likely to continue in the long term, national strategy will need to be reviewed accordingly. In the meantime, the Rebuilding Ireland housing construction target of 25,000 homes per annum will be met and exceeded by 2020 and the number of new housing units will continue to increase in the years beyond that. The NPF, published in 2018, identifies a need for this number to increase to 30,000 to 35,000 homes in the years to 2027. Any post-Brexit impact will be closely monitored and factored in accordingly.

The Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government is closely monitoring and will model and project the likely outcomes of Brexit in economic and demographic terms and on a geographic basis. This will enable a more detailed and updated assessment of likely housing demand that will inform any review of Rebuilding Ireland as the short to medium-term set of housing actions and targets to complement the longer-term strategic framework set out in the national planning framework.

See this speech in context