Michael Harty (Clare, Independent) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Tánaiste for taking this debate and for giving us this opportunity to express our views. It is difficult to see how Ireland can prepare for a Brexit when the UK, which has voted to leave the EU, does not know the terms on which it wishes to leave. Defining Brexit is also difficult because it means many things to different people. There is no clarity on the issue and, thus, we are in a vacuum, and we find ourselves in a vacuum even today in trying to clarify what we want from this process.

Five possibilities or scenarios arise. The first of these is a no-deal Brexit, which is a chaotic disorderly exit that would be the worst-case scenario for everyone, particularly ourselves. A no-deal Brexit increasingly appears to be the outcome as 29 March approaches, but we hope it will not happen. The second scenario is no Brexit at all. In other words, the UK would decide to leave the issue behind and would not exit the EU. That would solve all our problems. The third scenario is a negotiated withdrawal agreement. This would be the best worst option and it is the one we have at present. It would allow for an orderly withdrawal and for a transition period to negotiate the trading relationship the UK would have with the EU. It would ensure that there would not be a hard border between the North and the Republic and it would also support the Good Friday Agreement. The fourth option is an extension of the deadline for completing the withdrawal beyond 29 March. That appears to be an increasingly likely outcome. However, a prolonged extension of the withdrawal would lead to particular problems, especially regarding the European Parliament elections at the end of May and whether these would be contested in the UK. The fifth option is if there could be a new withdrawal agreement, some alteration to the agreement that has been agreed so far and that would accommodate the wishes of the UK Parliament.

We have been presented with those five scenarios and planning for each is substantially different. Prudently, one would plan for the worst and hope for the best. Ireland will be the most vulnerable of all EU states but the Netherlands and Denmark will be substantially affected by Brexit. We should link with those countries to examine what they are doing regarding their preparedness for Brexit. Brexit will undoubtedly affect our welfare and our standard of living.

Refusing to openly discuss the possibility or probability of a border on this island is no longer an option. Nobody wants a return to a border of any type - neither in this arrangement nor any other - but we must face the fact that this it is a distinct possibility.

We must consider how dependent we are on Britain as being part of the EU and consider what it would mean to us if Britain were to leave. We must consider our energy security, food security, medical products - particularly in the context of the way we will deal with importing them - and financial services. We must consider the issue of transport not only in terms of our ports but also our airports and, significantly, our roads. The haulage industry faces significant administrative and logistical challenges. These have yet to be worked out. How would they affect the way we export our goods? It would make some exports virtually impossible if there were to be long delays at our ports. We must consider border controls and there may be such controls, whether they would be virtual or real. We must consider regulatory alignment. We must also plan for what tariffs would be applied to Irish exports, particularly Irish agricultural exports. Effectively, it will be economic considerations that will dictate what arrangements are arrived at rather than party-political considerations.

We have learned three things during the past week about how the British Government views Brexit. The UK Parliament does not want the deal that has been negotiated over the past two years. It also does not want a no-deal Brexit. There appears to be no deal whatsoever which will satisfy the hard Brexiteers. Therefore, how does one arrive at a deal while accommodating those three items?

EU cohesion is very important, even if the UK leaves the EU, and we must maintain it. We cannot allow a member state to pick and choose form a menu of articles of association and memorandums of agreement, keeping those which they like and disregarding those which they dislike. One cannot be a member of a club and then pick and choose the rules, as one sees fit. One can be an associate member of a club but that means one has some privileges but one does not have any part to play in decision-making processes. That is the dilemma in which the UK now finds itself. It needs to decide what it wants and to negotiate the best deal it can get for itself. However, Ireland must be proactive in planning for every scenario no matter how difficult those scenarios might be.

One cannot be like Schrödinger's cat and be alive and dead at the same time. One cannot be both within the EU and outside it at the same time. However, there is an intermediate state which has been outlined in the withdrawal agreement that allows for a pragmatic arrangement which requires compromise from both sides. The EU has compromised substantially regarding the withdrawal agreement by granting Northern Ireland the golden card of being within the EU and within the UK at the same time and being allowed to trade within the UK and within the EU. However, the Republic of Ireland has the backing of the EU and we would expect it to support us in our time of need if the worst comes to the worst.

Ireland will have plan legislatively to accommodate a no-deal Brexit. We need to see that legislation as soon possible. I understand that between 40 and 70 items of legislation will have to be passed. Ireland will have to make painful budgetary adjustments if there is a no-deal Brexit. We need to know what those budgetary adjustments are going to be. Ireland will have to get financial support from the EU to blunt the economic shocks both nationally and at an individual company level. We must define what we require from the EU and ensure we do get that support.

Undoubtedly, there will be bottlenecks in supplies of raw materials for manufacturing and also for finished products, particularly medication. We need to define what those are. There will also bottlenecks at our ports and at border crossings in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Companies are already making decisions based on a no-deal Brexit. This is before Brexit actually comes to pass and it has been going on for the past number of years. Brexit is having an effect before it comes to pass.

Openly planning for a no-deal Brexit is not a sign of weakness on the part of the Government or of acceptance that such a scenario will come to pass. Doing so makes common sense. The Government has done everything possible to accommodate the UK in delivering its version of Brexit, but we now need to be pragmatic and look to our ourselves and how we will deal with that scenario. We must make plans which openly mitigate every scenario, particularly that of a no-deal Brexit.

The Good Friday Agreement will be at risk if there is a no-deal Brexit. It is predicated on Northern Ireland and the Republic both being part of the EU. If Brexit were to interfere with that joint membership, it would put the Good Friday Agreement at risk. In effect, the EU is a third-party custodian of the Good Friday Agreement. The imposition of a border would effectively put the Good Friday Agreement at risk. Northern Ireland leaving the customs union and the Single Market means that a border to protect the integrity of both would have to be put in place in some form of other. There is a warning that breaking the Good Friday Agreement would be contrary to international law and would nullify the past 50 years of Anglo-Irish relations. Those relations have been built up steadily during that period and breaking the agreement could lead to a return to violence. It will be impossible to prepare satisfactorily for every scenario but we must confront the issue of a no-deal Brexit.

It is of the utmost importance that EU remains united. It is also of the utmost importance that the EU does not lose sight of its long-term strategic interests which are also Irish interests.

See this speech in context