Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Deputy. He is correct to say Brexit, particularly a no-deal Brexit, will be damaging for our economy. However, it is worth noting the ESRI projections released this morning. The ESRI states:

The Irish economy looks set to register another exceptional performance in 2018; employment is growing at 3 per cent with taxation receipts across most headings also experiencing better than expected returns. The ESRI’s latest Quarterly Economic Commentary states that GDP is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in 2018, followed by 4.2 per cent growth in 2019 [...] Our forecasts for 2019 are subject to the technical assumption that the UK's continued membership in the EU will effectively remain in place after March 2019. However, the economy faces an unprecedented degree of uncertainty in 2019; the outcome of the Brexit process, combined with the possibility of increased international trade tensions, could have significant implications for the economy’s performance in the new year. In the Commentary, we illustrate how a Brexit scenario, where WTO tariffs would apply, could almost halve the growth outlook in 2019.

As such, the analysis of the ESRI is that even in the event of a hard Brexit in which World Trade Organization, WTO, tariffs apply, the economy would still grow next year, although the rate of that growth would be slower. The economy would not go into recession. It is a very reassuring analysis and projection from the ESRI, but it is something we cannot take for granted. The ESRI projection that the Irish economy will grow, albeit at a slower rate, is because our economy is so strong that it will continue to grow and not go into recession even in the event of a hard Brexit next year. Even so, we cannot take anything for granted or assume that the ESRI projections are necessarily correct.

This morning, I had the privilege to open the new European headquarters of Barclays Bank on the site where the Passport Office used to be located. the road, the new headquarters of Barclays Bank. This means that every branch in Europe will now be a branch of Barclays Bank Ireland on Molesworth Street. The bank is going to employ 400 people when fully staffed and will have a balance sheet of €250 billion based here in Dublin. This is an example of what is happening in the wider economy. While there are huge downsides to Brexit, particularly for SMEs and the agrifood sector, money and jobs are also coming into the country because people know Ireland is a good place to do business. That is because our economy is strong, we have a good education system, a favourable tax regime for companies, pro-enterprise policies and a political consensus in that regard across the House and because we know our position is at the heart of Europe no matter what happens anywhere else.

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