Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I am sure the Taoiseach is aware that there are many signs of worrying pressures in the economy and the huge social dimension to the impact of the housing crisis. That crisis which is now over five years' old is having a significant impact on inward investment and disposable incomes which are being reduced by exorbitant rents. It is causing missed opportunities and a lack of mobility. There are growing signs that Brexit is beginning to have an impact on consumer confidence, as well as potentially causing disruption in the United Kingdom market. An important aspect is a sense of deflation which has followed the complacency arising from the overselling of last December's deal. Where once businesses were told that they had an iron clad assurance of the status quocontinuing and that the United Kingdom as a whole was leaning towards a soft or low impact Brexit, today the public feels a general degree of anxiety and a higher level of fear. The Copenhagen study which remains the Government's only attempt to quantify the impact of Brexit states we face a loss of over 7% of national income in the event of a chaotic, no-deal Brexit and 4% in the event that there is some form of comprehensive free trade agreement. For example, a Canada plus agreement would lead to a decline of 4%. Will the Taoiseach confirm that these projections remain the basis for Ireland's Brexit planning and does he believe the measures taken so far and their impact are of sufficient scale to respond to a loss of between 4% and 7% of national income? One must take into account the divergence in the economy between the domestic, indigenous economy which relies heavily on exports to the United Kingdom and the multinational base which will probably prove to be more resilient. The indigenous sector, in particular, agrifood companies and companies in the west, the north west and the midlands which export mainly to Britain, could be in significant difficulty, even in the event that there is a free trade agreement along the lines of Canada plus.

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