Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour) | Oireachtas source

This is a most timely motion, as the clock is ticking down to March next year, when the UK leaves the EU. It is one thing to talk about the overall volume of goods and services traded between Ireland and the UK, and the possibility of Ireland finding new markets for some of its goods, but when we discuss the nature of the goods we export to Britain and the conditions of our ports and other infrastructure, we are faced with the stark reality that much more preparation work is required to ensure that our economy is cushioned against the inevitable negative impacts of Brexit. The Minister for Finance reported earlier that 40,000 jobs could be lost in the event of a hard Brexit.

The new trading relationship between the UK and Ireland post Brexit will be more difficult. Even if free trade with no tariffs or quotas is agreed, which is a tall expectation, there will still be paperwork created by the very fact that goods will be crossing in and out of the Union. Whatever European red tape the British may have abolished by exiting the EU, they will have replaced it several times over with red, white and blue tape. Analysis of the economic impact of Brexit carried out by Copenhagen Economics for the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation has projected lower economic output for Ireland by 2030 in every Brexit scenario. In the least worst scenario, in which the UK remains in both the customs union and the Single Market, a possibility which has been ruled out, the impact would still be 2.8% of gross domestic product, GDP. The worst-case scenario would rise to up to 7.7%. These are shocking prospective figures and impacts on us.

The same analysis also shows that wages would be lower for many workers by 2030, much worse than will be the case without Brexit. Wages for low skilled workers could be between 3.5% and 7.7% lower. Wages for highly skilled workers could be up to 6.5% lower. These are the figures in the aggregate, but the direct effect on many workers will be the loss of their jobs. Annually, Ireland exports €15.6 billion in goods to the UK and imports €18 billion. Focusing on Britain alone, rather than just Northern Ireland, the most valuable exports are food and live animals, accounting for €3.9 billion. Chemicals and related products account for another €3.9 billion. Machinery and transport equipment account for €2.6 billion, miscellaneous manufactured articles €1.1 billion, and a range of other items amount to a further €2.3 billion. Practically all of these goods pass to Britain through our ports, and they do so alongside another €100 billion in exports to other parts of the world, including €60 billion in chemicals. Alongside this, we import €70 billion worth of goods through our ports, €17 billion of that from Britain.

Our ports are clearly central to our ability to export and to import. If we are going to seriously open up new destinations for exports around the world, which is a strategic policy focus to combat Brexit, we need to be sure that our ports are ready to take up the volume and type of goods that would be involved. It is not as simple as saying that we have to find new markets for every item that we currently sell to Britain. It is more likely to be the case that significant restructuring will have to take place throughout the economy to shift the focus to export goods that are attractive elsewhere and will find alternative markets. Not only will our producers have to consider making these changes; so too will our distributors. We need to modify our distribution networks to be prepared for Brexit. This is also an opportunity. Britain accounts for only 14% of Irish goods exports, a remarkable fall from the day we joined the then Common Market. As Ireland strengthens its capacity to export directly to continental Europe, and to the wider world, it has an opportunity to strengthen regional economic development outside of the Dublin region. We are currently too dependent on Dublin Port as the main gateway into and out of Ireland. In turn, Dublin Port is massively reliant on the Dublin Port tunnel, without which the city of Dublin would be reduced to gridlock by lorries. The Dublin Port tunnel has a finite capacity to carry goods vehicles, which is another reason to plan for the development of ports outside Dublin. As an island, it is also desirable to have some degree of competition between our ports, to give choice to exporters and to ensure that our ports are efficiently run and that we do not put all our eggs in one basket.

Given the major challenges in the global trading environment, we simply cannot be complacent. Rosslare Europort is particularly well placed for this development. It is the nearest port to continental Europe and it is strategically important for this nation. The logic of that is simply that Dublin Port is hugely focused on shipping to Britain. If we want to shift even a fraction of this trade to continental Europe, then we should develop the port that is nearest to those continental European markets. It makes no sense for goods to be transported, for example, from across Munster all the way to Dublin only to be shipped south again, down the Irish Sea and past Rosslare Europort on their way to the continent. That makes no sense at all. It would lower carbon emissions if Rosslare Europort took this traffic. As such, we should envisage upgrading Rosslare Europort becoming a tier 1 port in the same category as Dublin, Cork or Shannon Foynes, as opposed to its current position as the largest tier 2 port, followed by the Port of Waterford Company.

Rosslare Europort is currently operated by Irish Rail as opposed to a separate port company, a unique historical arrangement that, bluntly, is not working right now. It remained profitable right throughout the downturn period, but it does not generate the return that would enable the major investment that is now required to upgrade it. The needs of the port include dredging to deal with the silting caused by winter storms and lateral drift, modernisation of facilities that need upgrading, and general maintenance. There is an argument for establishing a publicly-owned independent port authority for Rosslare to ensure a singular focus on maritime and shipping outlets. That would be in the national interest. Such an independent port authority could be formally linked to the local authority. There is also a need for a region-wide plan to ensure that Rosslare Europort is fully serviced by the infrastructure it needs to expand the volume of exports and imports that it handles. The Minister referenced the Enniscorthy bypass on the M11, which I was pleased to sign off on in my time in government, together with the New Ross bypass. However, when it is completed in a few months - and I look forward to the Minister coming down to open it - it is going to end in the tiny village of Oylegate. We need to complete the final phase of that as it was always envisaged, so that as was expected there is a motorway from Larne, right around the M50, all the way to Rosslare Europort and directly into the continent. I urge the Minister to look at the completion of the M11 in that regard. In the harbour itself, the access point down Delaps Hill is too narrow. It needs to be upgraded with a new road network into it.

In the past two years, I have attended a number of presentations about Ireland's preparations for Brexit. I am growing concerned that many of these preparations remain in the realm of conjecture and theory. What we need in the coming months is an understanding of the pressures on the exporting and importing community in this country, and to look at the true assets we have such as Rosslare Europort. We must give the port the infrastructure, management, selling and capital that it needs to ensure it can do the job for Ireland.

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