Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

Managing the delivery of public services within their budgetary allocations is a key responsibility of Ministers and their Departments. Given the scale of overall voted expenditure, the cash basis of Government accounting and the funding implications that unexpected events can have on expenditure requirements, variances or changes from spending profiles can occur for a number of reasons that may result in a requirement for Supplementary Estimates.

The summer economic statement sets out a general Government deficit of 0.2% of GDP in 2018, reducing to 0.1%. To remain within these deficit targets, any overrun in a particular sector would need to be offset by additional revenue or offsetting underspends in other areas.

The driver of any overrun would also impact on the extent of any carry-over cost into 2019. For example, an overrun arising from faster than anticipated progress on a capital project may result in expenditure being brought forward from the following year, whereas an overrun arising from additional unplanned recruitment, not provided within a Department's allocation for the year, would result in an increased carry-over impact in the following year.

The 2018 expenditure report sets out estimated carry-over costs of certain budget measures in the areas of social protection, education and justice. The 2018 summer economic statement provides an updated assessment of €300 million in respect of these costs. This assessment takes into account the budgetary policy as set out in the Revised Estimates Volume, REV, of 2018. To the extent that the Government decides to allocate additional resources this year, it will impact on this policy and potentially on the carry-over costs into 2019, depending on the underlying reason for the overrun.

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