Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

In terms of the Copenhagen Economics report, it does not quite say what Deputy Martin Kenny indicated it says. It tells us that Brexit will be bad for Ireland and the economy. I do not believe we needed another report to tell us that but this report helps to quantify the issue. It does not say there will be a new recession or economic crisis or that anyone's pay will be cut. What it says is that Brexit will have a dampening effect on growth into the future. Instead of the economy growing by approximately 22% over the next decade, it will grow by approximately 19% in the best case scenario or 15% in the worst case scenario. When one views the issue from that perspective, as laid out in the report, it presents quite a different picture. It identifies the particular sectors that would be worst affected by Brexit. It will not surprise people to learn that agriculture and agrifood is one such sector, as is aviation, but they may be less aware that they also include the electrical-machinery sector.

The report also assumes that the Government will not introduce mitigating measures or do anything to mitigate the consequences of Brexit. We asked the authors to make that assumption and the report was done based on a scenario of no policy changes. However, the Government is making efforts to mitigate the effects of Brexit and I will give three small examples. We have established a €300 million loan scheme to assist small businesses to secure access to credit in order that they can adapt to Brexit and seek new markets. A second example is investment in infrastructure in our airports and ports to prepare for Brexit. Finally, and perhaps most significant, we are doubling Ireland's global footprint by ensuring we have more embassies and consulates around the world and Bord Bia, Tourism Ireland, IDA Ireland and Enterprise Ireland have more suits on the ground and bigger budgets in order that we can diversify and decouple our economy even more from the British market. To take one of the most sensitive sectors, namely, agriculture, the proportion of agriculture exports to the United Kingdom has already fallen from 40% to 35%. This is an example of the good work being done by Bord Bia, the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine and others in diversifying our exports.

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